Week 4 picks and leans went 4-2. Lessons learned from the losses. Dolphins defense could not hold down the Bills. I partly knew this because their best pass rusher Philips and other stud CB Ramsey is out on the injury list. Their offense got shut down and the Bills pass rush was able to get to Tua. I thought this Dolphins offense was just going to lay the wood on everyone, but they didn’t. They ARE still a top 3 team in the AFC. Bills showed the world that they are forreals after 3 ass whooping wins. Bills, Dolphins, and Chiefs are the top 3 for the AFC.
Steelers offense as predicted was no where to be found, the defense could not catch a breather and it went down hill from there. The offense need to get better coaches and add another playmaker possibly. This offense generate like 250-300 yards a game which is very low. It’s possible to win with a good defense but you got to score and move the ball to at least field goal range.
Week 5 Picks
Bills looked good against 3 teams, winning all 3. Quality win against the Dolphins. They are playing in London this week so they will need to travel. I like the Jaguars +5.5 here as this team plays really well as an underdog and covers most the time as dogs.
Niners -3/ml -180, I’m willing to pay any price under -200 as this team will just keep winning. They have a shot at going undefeated as I mentioned in the last article but I don’t expect them to as health is important than a perfect record. Dak will struggle once again under the lights and the niners run game and offensive schemes will give them fits.
Panthers +10, I think this is too much points to give to a Lions team that is good but not elite at Defense. Again, Panthers defense can be stingy. They haven’t won a spread so this is a good spot.
It’s been a while since pre-pandemic since I’ve last worked on this website. However, I finally am starting to share my thoughts, knowledge and most importantly, winners with everyone again.
Three weeks of NFL football has gone by. What have you learn? Are you sure? Do you see what I see? Do you have that feeling that data and metrics cannot measure?
Most years, I’ve been able to identify champions before the season barely even began. Examples: Tom Brady first year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Golden State Warriors when they signed Kevin Durant, Houston Astros last year, these are a few from the list. How I gauge it is by identifying “motivation”, free agency, and the structure of the team.
This year I’ve identify that the team that will win the Super Bowl is the San Francisco 49ers. They are currently about 600+ odds to win, so if you place $1000 it will pay you $6000. Please do keep in mind, injuries and shit does happen, so placing an investment this early is little risky, but the odds will definitely go down as the season progress.
WHY them?! SF 49ers has always been a forced to be reckoned with the last 5 years since the hiring of Kyle Shannahan and GM John Lynch. Strong running game, strong defense, and great draft selections year after years until Trey Lance which I was highly against. Last year they struck gold with Brock Purdy, the last pick of the draft. Who would have known right? I’ve always said, never draft a QB based on their athletic abilities, speed, or strength. You GOT to draft a QB that has a BRAIN… IQ. Someone who can read the field, make smart decision, and have a strong work ethic. Purdy is that guy. Decent enough arm strength, accurate passer, good at reading the field, doesn’t make much mistakes, and can extend plays with his mobile ability. Everything Jimmy G wasn’t lol. If they stay healthy, they will win the championship because they have the best roster from top to bottom.
Best offense. Elite running game. Elite play-caller by the coach. Smart QB who can extend plays. Purdy, CMC, Kittle, Deebo, Ayiuk. THAT is so unfair.
Best defense. They replaced their defensive coordinator with another excellent one LOL. So their defense hasn’t missed a beat. If anything, the new DC improves their secondary. You got the best D-line in the league, to go with arguably the best Linebacker core, and a solid top 5 Secondary.
Niners should have won a championship by now if not for unlucky timing of injuries. THIS IS THEIR YEAR. TRUST.
Look at the league and tell me another team that can compete with them? Eagle? Nope, their defense got worse in terms of linebacker and secondary. Cowboys? Nope, never going to win shit with Dak and McCarthy. I mean the guy had Aaron Rodgers and only won one lmao… Dolphins? Sure they can make it interesting, but what’s the recipe to beat a fast elite efficient offense? A good sound defense and a good run game (niners have).
Look I can go on and on, but I have a baby to feed and sleep to catch on for work lol. But I’m happy to be back to share with you my load of knowledge and vision.
Week 4 Picks
Dolphins +3/ml +130 vs the Bills, they fall in a system where when a team scores 30+ pts and keep their opponent to 10 or less points in back to back games, they tend to lose SU. Fade the bills this week. Dolphins are the real deal by the way, they will win the AFC. Bills defense looked good against terrible offense and offensive lines. Speed will wreck havoc on them this week.
Broncos ml, Bears are the worse team in the NFL. You got the dumbest QB in Fields, sorry ass play calling, a defense that can’t stop nobody. This is the battle of two winless teams. Give me the one with the better Head Coach and QB that just got whooped by 70pts.
Rams +1 versus the Colts. Colts huge victory against the Ravens last week. Let down spot here. Colts will face a veteran Ram squad that can move the ball and play some defense. I do not see the Colts go 3-1 here. I see the Rams picking up an much needed and should win game here to go 2-2.
Steelers ml, I love the way they play defense, it’s nasty. Great opportunity to go 3-1 here before falling back down to earth later lol. Steelers fans, don’t get ahead of yourself. Your offense sucks. Not until you get a real offensive coordinator you aint winning playoffs. Texan rookie QB been looking solid, decent numbers and actually looked good after 3 weeks and playing with a non-existence O-line. However, this week, that will catch up to them going against this Steeler defense not to mention let down spot.
If I wanted to add on to a parlay card, I would pick Vikings ml, however their defense suck, their on the road, and Panthers defense is actually pretty decent, so a 0-4 loss to the Panthers is possible, but I’d like to think not because of better QB and offense play. Cowboys -7, that defense should be able to rebound and get to Mac Jones easily. Patriots offense is terrible and hasn’t been the same without Brady the Goat.
Enjoy the picks. I feel very confident in the first 4 winners I provided to you all. I am personally going big on ALL 4 and will create a 4 team parlay and 6 team parlay.
Maturity. Such as does the team have a bunch of freshmen or does the team have a bunch of upperclassmen like Juniors and Seniors. This is a critical aspect because it shows the level of IQ they carry. It also helps because when things don’t go right, they remain calm, collected and adjust and execute. Also when it comes down to clutch situation, you want IQ.
Coaching. Does the coach have tournament experience? Is the coach known for blowing games? Is the coach a excellent halftime adjustment maker if the team sucked in the 1H? Coaching can get the most out of its players. They need a leader who can direct them at the down times.
Players with tournament experience. Similar to #1 but with tournament experience they know what to expect second time around and they can help give knowledge to their teammates.
Playmaker aka Star Power. Every team needs a guy who can turn the game around and a guy who makes an impact in the game and can carry the team if need be. For example: Mich St has Winston Cassius, Dayton: Obi Toppin, SD State: Flynn and Mitchell, or Kansas: Devon Dotson. Notice most of these players that I mentioned are GUARDS or at MOST a SMALL FORWARD type guy. Big man don’t carry in college, Big man can impact but can’t CARRY.
FREE THROW AND GETTING/CREATING FREE THROW OPPORTUNITIES. Being excellent in shooting free throw is one thing, but it ain’t much if you can’t get to the line. So they go hand in hand.
3 POINT BALL. In College 3pt making is important, it can set the tone of the game. Also it’s important to be able to make 3s when your down and need to catch up. But you also live and die by the 3 ball.
Defense/Turnover.
Rebounding, rebounding well defensively helps prevent the other team from getting more attempts. If you rebound well offensively like Auburn for example, it gives your team more chances to put the ball in the basket.
MOMENTUM, teams that are playing HOT down the stretch of the season and make it into the tournament, these are teams to BEWARE. Example: Providence*** Won like last 9 out of 10 games and BEAT 5 Ranked opponents. THAT IS HUGE.
Homefield. There isnt really homefield for anyone unless you happen to get place in a bracket that is near your city. HERES A FREEBIE: Florida St if they are #2 seed and play in Tampa. Gonzaga if they remain #1 seed and play in Spokmane.
EARLY TOURNAMENT PICKS / LEANS
***Will update periodically.
Last updated today 3/8/20.
Gonzaga -20 or less (Coach with experience, players with experience, offensively really good, pretty solid defense, home field) Florida State -16 or less (Coach with experience, some players with experience, 12 man roster with depth, long and lengthy players which gives defensive advantage, also home crowd advantage) These big spread teams are pretty much the only time I will lay huge double digit lines in the first round, theres value here against inferior opponents.
Virginia game, Under first half, Under Whole Game. Under 2H *** pends on the 1H.
Last year winner: 59 points, which means I need to average about 3.5 each week for 17 weeks to win that million dollars!!!
Week 3 is finally in the books. Wow, this is going to be a interesting season. So what have we learned after 3 weeks of NFL? 7 undefeated teams remain and 7 teams are 0-3 without a win.
The San Francisco 49ers are for reals. That defense is solid as a mother. Before the season started I predicted that the SF will be one of the best upcoming team this season with the addition of defensive players, excellent coaching, and the return of Jimmy.
Buffalo has a top 10 defense, they sit 3-0 and face the Brady bunch next week. They are an upcoming team as well but they have lots to learn before they can compete with the big boys. New England is -7.5 against the Bills, tease that all day. Brady goes 4-0.
The Rams front line on defense is nasty, my goodness. That is a tough defense to face. If the offense can click and be dominate like last year, they will be a force. Packers on the other hand, this is probably the best defense Rodgers ever had on his team. He doesn’t need to play from behind, or even sling it that much. They also have some sort of running game as well. I think one of these two teams will represent the NFC in the superbowl.
Chiefs and Patriots will represent the AFC in the superbowl. Andy Reid is notorious with choking in big games though…
Update on GREAT TEAMS:
Patriots
Chiefs
Rams
Packers
On the fence borderline GREAT:
Cowboys (Need a win against a top 15 team)
Niners (Big win against the Steelers defense definitely puts them in the conversation)
Trash teams LOL…
Miami
Bengals
Jets
Broncos
FREE Plays of the week:
Record: 2-1
This week I’ll give you two plays.
7 point teaser Los Angeles Rams & Kansas Chiefs
Maryland +7 / +205 moneyline
-Friday night upset city. Penn State still have a solid defense, offense not so much. Maryland overlooked the game versus Temple and it took 2 1st and goal at the 2 yard line to fail for them to lose. Still an explosive team and they have home field. Penn State vs road game as well.
Last year winner: 59 points, which means I need to average about 3.5 each week for 17 weeks to win that million dollars!!!
Update on the GREAT TEAMS:
Patriots, excellent defense top 3 so far. With the addition of Brown to the offense my goodness. I can definitely see Patriots going undefeated this year. Whenever they are -7 or less, great add to the teasers.
Packers, defense has been clutch for them, running game has been effective, Rodgers doing enough to win games. Packers have beaten two solid defenses back to back weeks, would love to see how they handle a hot offense like Rams or Chiefs.
Chiefs, this offense can score on ANYBODY. The only thing this team needs to focus on his defense which has been very improved so far.
Rams, great offense as always. Defense is solid. I put them as 4th because we didn’t get a chance to see them play the Saints with a healthy QB.
ALMOST GREAT TEAM:
Cowboys, they beat 2 sorry teams. I know they are really good, but would like to see them beat a top 15 team to move them up to Great.
TRASH CAN TEAMS LOL…
Miami… blown out TWICE lol… they allowed a combined 102 points on defense. Could they go undefeated in the loss column?!?!
Giants, until they get rid of that slender bender Manning QB, their future will be going no where soon.
Week 3 Free Plays of the week:
1-0 so far.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Total 54
This should be NFL game of the week. We got two electric young QB studs going at it this week. Lamar Jackson is going to put up crazy fantasy number this year, I ain’t going to lie, I’m butthurt I didn’t draft him but Brady super late round haha. Anyways, we knew Jackson could run, but he could always throw, they just didn’t develop too many plays for him last year. This year, they have it all on offense. Plus the fact that they added him a few more weapons on offense only improved this ball club. Chiefs we already know wassup with this team, they’ll score on anyone. Baltimore defense lost many pieces this year so they ain’t all that. They focusing on offense instead. Chiefs defense improved this year, but this Jackson offense will do some damage. I don’t like betting on totals, but this is one to bet on if you like totals. 34-28 type of score with someone winning.
Texas AM -3
Auburn first road game. Maybe TAM first half or full game would be good. Both teams undefeated in 3-0 ATS. But remember what I said about Auburn coach, he is a nuthead, his offense stinks, chokes during big games. Auburn had a quality win vs Oregon but was that luck? They got dominated the whole game but Oregon took the foot off the petal. Now Auburn is off on a road trip to face TAM. Texas AM only quality match up was against Clemson. They stuck around, couldn’t beat them but did not get blown the F up. This is a primetime game, going with the home team to give Auburn it’s first loss.
“If your life depended on it, bet the better team of the two.”
-KK1
Raise your hand if you fell in love with the Browns hype. Man they got manhandled. Yes they look bad, but they still have a very decent team and they will get back to winning. When you doubt them, that’s when its time to bet them.
Lot’s of rookies with breakout day 1 stats. Why? Because no one really game plan for that. Don’t expect an encore performance week 2.
Now that week 1 is over, I leave you with this powerful tool. Know which team is an overreaction and which teams are frauds…
Remember that quote I gave you guys, “Good teams win, Great teams cover.”
Well here is my list of GREAT teams:
Patriots (Goat QB + Coach, ton of offensive weapons, very solid defense) Chiefs (One of the best offense in the league, ELECTRIC QB, he is the real deal, defense IMPROVED) Ravens (Defense kind of decline in my opinion, lost CJ Mosley, Terrell Suggs, Z’daire Smith, BUTTTTT OFFENSE VASTLY IMPROVED, BREAKOUT year for Lamar Jackson)
Borderline great, need another week or 2 to confirm:
Cowboys (Solid on both side of the field, I dislike the redhair coach, but need to see if they can beat a real team, Giants is a top 5 bottom team)
Rams (Still one of the best offense, still many great pieces on defense, but they did not show their dominance in week 1, need to see more next couple weeks)
Packers (Offense did not do much, but maybe because Chicago defense is still top notch. BUT that Packer defense vastly improved adding like 4-5 star worthy pieces)
Week 2 Free Play of the week:
Packers ml, -2 should be good too. Rodgers will have a easier time working his offense this week. Back in their own home field. Cousins, is a weak QB, never won a big game in his career. They beat a weak Atlanta Falcons team, if they beat packers then I’ll take them more serious. I see Packers going 2-0, don’t be fool, Packers taking this division this year. LOOK UP THAT DEFENSE…
COLLEGE TALK
At the moment nothing pops out. Some games are interesting, but lines are inflated in my opinion. So week 3 could be a good week to step away my fellow friends.
How’s it going everyone? I hope you all are having a fantastic summer. Let’s get right to it for some football talk.
Some pre-season things to note before you start betting in the regular season:
NFL
1. Coaching, see which team got new coaches, offensive coordinators, and defensive coordinators. All this matter because they will dictate how the team perform. So just because Team A (that has a fancy big brand name) with crappy coordinators, may not perform like years in the past, and vice-versa.
2. Free-agent signings & trades. It’s good to note how a team has decrease or increase it’s value by the pieces it added in the off season. For example, 49ers added Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Jason Vernett, and Kwon Alexander. 49ers were like bottom 5 in defense last year, and they added pieces all OVER the field. That’s a huge bump up, so don’t expect them to suck this year. An example for a team like Patriots, will be without Gordon, Edelman, and Gronk, so they decrease a bit in offense, but they ARE still the Patriots and they find a way but it may not be as productive.
3. Intangibles. So what is this? Well things that aren’t physically measurable. Take Hype, for example, the Cleveland Browns is like LOADED with hype. They had a great end to their season last year, added some big names, and got some big hype going for them, but with hype comes inflation, so their spreads won’t be as attractive this year. The opposite of hype is overlooked underrated teams. Some example of this is the Raiders who looked extremely terrible last year (they are on hard knocks HBO) and Tampa Bay Bucs who got shredded on defense. These teams should be improved by better coaching and talent.
CFB
For College Football, remember we are betting on a bunch of kids to win us money. So in order to succeed in this field, we need to invest on vastly superior coaching and talent of the kids.
Coaches to beware:
Auburn (Notorious for stinking)
Ohio State (No more Urban Meyers, will it be the same?)
Schools with high upside:
Kansas was stinking the last decade or so in college football, but they won a few games last year and just recruited Les Miles as their head coach. Big things to come perhaps. Watching a few games of Kansas last year, they got some talent in that team, just need someone to put it all together and make the kids better.
As you all know, I will be joining the Westgate super contest this year. I have been wanting to join this for a long time now and finally have the opportunity to. If you want to learn more about it, search up westgate super contest or go to their website. I also have details on my IG post. It’s a $1500 buyin which is a good chunk, but if you’re a good capper and able to make the top 100, you’ll get cash out. Would love to make it into the top 10. Thanks to everyone that has bought some equity. This will be a fun ride and I hope to flip that investment for you.
I leave you all with this great quote to live by for the season.
This year, I’ve decided to post my bowl season mania here for everyone to checkout. Fade, follow, it doesn’t matter. Hope you enjoy the analysis from yours truly. Good luck and lets have a fantastic and fun bowl season.
Everyone who subscribed for the Bowl Season package has been refunded, so enjoy this free session!
***Check website daily and hourly for updated post of games here. Will also put announcements on IG***
DATE & TIME OF GAME
Saturday 12/15
10:30 AM PST
Location: Orlando, FL
TEAMS PLAYING
Tulane vs LA Lafayette
PICK
1st Half under 31
0.50 units
+
LA Lafayette +3.5
0.50 units
GAME ANALYSIS (Optional)
Both team likes to run the ball. Tulane has a little better defense overall. They give up less run yards than ULL and they also give up 6 points less. Conference wise, we have to give it to AAC (Tulane) because they have better talent and teams in that conference thus making each other better. Tulane beat Navy to get into the Bowl so this is important for them. ULL went to the Sun Belt championship but came out with a Loss. So we don’t know what to expect from this team since motivation could be flat here for them.
ULL did play Alabama and Miss St, which does wonder for a team. It makes you tougher and battle tested. ULL QB is a little more accurate than Tulane QB, but threw more INTs than I would like. BUT he did make twice as many attempt passing than Tulane QB.
Key Factors:
-ULL converts on 3rd downs 48% vs TU 35%
-Tulane fired his OC, a sign that things aren’t going well offensively
Truth:
-ULL 8-2 ATS last 10
-ULL 5-1 ATS last 6 as a dog
-TU 0-4 ATS as a favorite vs FBS
With both teams being away from the game for such a long time, and both team loving to run the ball and not much of a big passing threat, I like both teams coming into this game with slow steady amount of runs, lots of time killing possessions and punts.
DATE & TIME OF GAME
Saturday 12/15
12:30 PM PST
Location: Las Vegas
TEAMS PLAYING
Arizona St vs Fresno St
PICK
1st half Fresno State -3
0.5 units
GAME ANALYSIS (Optional)
Arizona State #1 WR going to the NFL. That’s one less weapon for Arizona St.
Fresno State defense is very good, not much recognition they are getting. THey are excellent at stopping the run, so Arizona State star RB will be keyed on here since their #1 WR is out. Another thing is, that #1 WR is a safety net for the QB especially on 3rd downs, so without him, Ar St will have a harder time converting and extending plays.
Fresno State QB solid passer, can move on his feet, they also have a key WR to go to when needed.
Arizona State plays a 3-3-5 defense that can catch opponents off guard if they never seen it before, but Fresno State seen this before because this DC of Ar St came from SD St whose in the same conference as Fresno. Blitzing a team that knows your doing that will give them chances of big plays.
I like Fresno State to take control in the 1st Half because they have a better defense and better offense to get things rolling. They have all the tools to succeed early on. I see Arizona State having to adjust as the game goes on and figure things out and how to move the ball as problems arises.
2nd Half:
Tulane vs ULL under 28 (Lose)
Utah State -4.5 (win)
MTenn vs App St under 24 (Lose)
Day 1 of Bowl Mania: 1-5, -2 units
12/18 Tuesday
UAB moneyline posted on IG Story 12/18 (Win)
Day 2 of Bowl Mania: 1-0, +1 Unit
12/19 Wednesday
SDSU vs Ohio under 49 (Win)
2H Ohio ml (Win)
***Both plays posted on IG Story 12/19
Day 3 of Bowl Mania: 2-0, +1.5 units Bowl Season: 4-5, +0.5 units
***4-0 Bowl run***
12/20 Thursday
No Plays
12/21 Friday
Western Mich vs BYU under 52 (Lose)
Day 5 of Bowl Mania: 0-1, -0.5 units Bowl Season: 4-6, 0 units
12/22 Saturday
9 AM Wake Forest +3.5 (Win)
9 AM 2H Wake Forest pk (Win)
12:30 PM Army vs Houston over 60 (Win)
12:30 PM Army -6 (Win)
12:30 PM 2H Army vs Houston ov 24.5 (Win)
4:00 PM Troy +2.5 (Win)
Day 6 of Bowl Mania: 6-0, +4.5 units Bowl Season: 10-6, +4.5 units
12/26 Wednesday
2:15 PM Georgia Tech -5 (Lose)
2:15 PM Gtech TT over 31.5 (Lose)
2:15 PM Gtech vs Minn over 57 (Lean)
Day 7 of Bowl Mania: 0-2, -3 units Bowl Season: 10-8, +1.5 units
12/27 Thursday
10:30 AM Duke +3.5 (WIN)
2:15 PM Miami Hurricanes ml (Lose)
6:00 PM Vanderbilt -4 (Lose)
Day 8 of Bowl Mania: 1-2, -1.25 unit Bowl Season: 11-10, +1.25 units
Here we are, another week of Blog presented to you by yours truly, Kapperking. Last week I gave you two totals to hit, and they both went over as predicted. Our write-ups for our clients have been solid thus far going 2-1 in NFL and 1-2 in College, but both profited based on our unit wager. This week I will give you one play that is based on pretty much what the title states “Value & Perception Lines.”
MLB/Football Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1 Blog#3: 9-3 Blog#4: 6-8 Blog#5: 2-1 Blog#6: 2-0
YTD: 36-15
NFL Power Rankings:
1. Minnesota Vikings (Offense, Defense)
2. Los Angeles Rams (Offense , Defense)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (Okay Offense, Defense)
4. Green Bay Packers (Offense, Okay Defense)
5. New England Patriots (Okay Offense & Defense, will get better when all the pieces are put together).
Top NFL Fade Teams:
-Buffalo Bills
-Arizona Cardinals
Top 4 College Football Teams
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio St.
4. Clemson
Top 4 MLB Teams
1. Boston (They have the it factor, but lots of it will depend on their offense.)
2. Houston (Best starting pitching line-ups, top 3 bullpen as well. But offense is very bi-polar)
3.Oakland A’s (They have hitters who can hit, sure they might not hit home runs as often as the Yankees. But they get base hits and know how to get on the bases. Deadly hitters with a very very strong bullpen. They have the Cinderella Mojo. If they win the wild card, this team has a good chance to upset Boston).
4. NY Yankees (Hitting is starting to come back for this team, they are also getting healthier. Bullpen still a work in progress. Solid starting pitching. If they hit lights out, they will beat almost any one).
Stanford -1 @ Oregon, both 3-0. Stanford first true road test. Of the two teams, Stanford has been more battle tested. Oregon so far is 3-0 but has played 3 bottom tier teams with countries top worst defenses. Stanford put 30 on a tough SD State defense and grind out a battle with USC team that is loaded with talent and speed. Stanford has a very good and smart experience QB that I really like. I have watch him last year down the stretch and he has shown a lot of skills and play making ability. When you have a QB doing this job, it will make the job on the RB a lot easier. It makes that much more impact when your RB is a stud like Bryce Love. They have a 1-2-3 Combo with QB-RB-WR + a smart coach. Stanford defense has also played well, so we must kudos them as well. The line is low most likely because Stanford is on the road and that Oregon record is also 3-0. The perception is to make it look like an even match. But seriously, I see Stanford as a top 10-15 team because they have it all to be really good. With that said, thanks to Oregon 3-0 record it gives us a value line. No upset here. It’s a tough place to play in Eugene, OR especially at night. But I have confidence that the better team (Stanford-with the more complete team) will come out victorious. This is a quality team. Take them with confidence. 1.5 units.
MLB Special
Sunday Night ESPN
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians
Play the over 8.5/9
Bullpens are nothing special. Starting pitchers aren’t anything amazing. Both teams are playoff clinched. Why not shootout!?
***Keep in mind, I do not know what the starting line-up is for this game, it can switch as well. There is no spread or total out for this Sunday game as today is Friday. All I can say is that instinct tells me a Sunday night shootout would be great for baseball as this is one of the last 2 games for Sunday night MLB. But people will probably be watching Sunday Night Football instead haha…
Welcome back to another edition of Kapper Nation blogs. Last week I told you we would have a easy 3-1 win and we did but we cancel the last LAD/COL over game due to pitching change but it still went over. So we end up 2-1 for our blog picks and still came up profitable.
MLB/Football Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1 Blog#3: 9-3 Blog#4: 6-8 Blog#5: 2-1
YTD: 34-15
Announcements: We are on a great start to September. Currently profiting in MLB (12-5) and NFL (3-0) while we are making a resurgent push back to even in CFB (7-10). Get all of our picks and analysis and 24/7 breakdowns on any plays you want us to analyze for you for $100 for the remainder of September. It’s a bargain people. Prices will go back to $200 per month starting in October.
NFL top 6
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. New England Patriots
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Green Bay Packers
College Football top 4
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Auburn
4. Clemson
Top 4 MLB
1. Boston (Best offense, bullpen not as reliable but their offense can score in bunches).
2. Houston (Top 2 bullpen, and probably top 2 in starting pitching. Offense is great as well).
3. Oakland (top 2 bullpen, offense has the ability to score in bunches as well. Only question is their starting pitching).
4. Chicago Cubs (Above average pitching/bullpen, excellent defense and probably one the top 3 clutch teams in MLB this season. They have a reliable offense that can get hits and bases at the right time).
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total = 44
Both team just played some hard fought battles for their week 1 matchup. Both games being outdoor. Now they will play in a dome stadium for their week 2 matchup. Notable injuries: Greg Olson TE is out for Panthers, one less weapon for Cam Newton, but they still got McCaffery who I think will put up monster numbers in this game. Why? Because Atlanta just lost 2 HUGE pieces to their defense. Safety Neal and linebacker Jones are gone. That takes away 2 speed defenders as well as starters. That will leave the middle of the filed and some deep zone area vulnerable for some big plays. Falcons boast one of the best offensive arsenal with Freeman, Jones, Coleman, Sanu, Hooper, Ryan. They can score. They will definitely score more than 13 points this week. Last week they had MANY chances to score on PHI but came up short many times. This week will be different. Being indoor and on turf will increase the production of offense in this matchup. This is also a divisional game so both team will play hard and want this important win. Thanks to a lackluster production of points from both team last week, it gives us a good total number at 44. Imagine if they went berserk like TB vs NO, this total would probably be set around the 48 area. 2 injured star defensive pieces on the ATL side will benefit CAR offense while ATL offense is already stack and I see no real threat of CAR secondary. Score prediction: 28-20, 27-21.
Play the OVER 44. (Get 42 or 43 is even better).
Alabama vs Ole Miss
Total = 69
Both team’s strength is the offense. Both team can light up the score board. Defensively the edge goes to Bama of course due to all the talent they have. But they let go of their DC who went on to a new coaching job at Tennessee. Both team scored well but both team played bad opponents so their offense can be considered a bit inflated. Bama has played poor competition thus far with Louisville being the only team to score the most against their defense with 14pts but Louisville sucks. Ole Miss defense is, wait, they don’t have a defense lol. This will be a fun ESPN night game for them and they will be hype. Ole Miss can put up 21 points on Bama, and I see Bama putting up at least 40. Or perhaps this game could be a lot closer than we think? Could we see a flaw in Bama defense this week? This week will prove whether Bama has a defense. Bama will score at will, and Ole Miss will keep attacking on offense. Score Prediction: 49-28 / 49-21.
Welcome back to Blog 5. Wasn’t planning to make a blog 5 but this weekend will be a special one since it will include an overall analysis of ALL sports: MLB, NCAAF and NFL.
But first we need to go through our weekend outcomes so that we can learn a thing or two about our wins and losses to better improve our future picks.
MLB Weekend Summary: We went a perfect 4-0 on client MLB plays (1-0 Sat, 2-0 Sun, 1-0 Mon). As for the blog future series picks we went 6-8 which isn’t surprising as I did pick all the premier matchups for the weekend. What I am surprise is that Arizona only won 1 game of the 4 and that the Padres won 2 games and that the Whitesox are still on fire…but if there is one thing we learn, it is that Arizona offense is not that good…besides there top 4 hitters in the lineup, the others suck…pitching is decents, but their main reliever Archie Bradley and closer Boxburger sucks and will blow some if not lots of games. I know there Redsox hasn’t look amazing the last week or so but trust me they are good. They are just slumping with poor pitching and injuries. But they have the best offense and it can ignite at anytime. Never count them out. Dodgers offense is vastly overrated, I think it best to play them when they are against poor pitching teams which will allow their offense to shine. Have not seen them make ACE pitchers look bad, only Cubs have done that. Look for the Rockies to get hot in their next 10 games at home in September, they been excellent at home and especially against their division rivals.
CFB Weekend Summary: It was an awful putrid weekend in football to say the least. We never learn our lesson, should probably sit back and watch each team to get a feel for how they play. But its okay, part of the learning process, now with our losses we can learn how that team performed. We went a garbage 3-9 in CFB week 1. So lets breakdown some of our main losses. Michigan, defense is still very good, but offense is still something to be desire. QB may need a few more games to break in, more maybe need a weaker opponent to bash on to see how good they are. They will need their RBs and WRs to step up. Their offense SHOULD be an upgrade from last year though. Wisconsin, a few points shy from getting us the cover. Run game should be fine, but having some trouble in the passing game. Maybe they are just rusty. They will get back one WR from suspension so that should help. Houston started slow as hell and allowed Rice to pour in 20 points in the first half before shutting them down the 2H. They are led by Art Brile Offense, which is the ex-coach of Baylor back when RG3 used to play. So expect them to light it up. They play Arizona next and Houston will be back home.
MLB Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1 Blog#3: 9-3 Blog#4: 6-8
CFB Picks Recap:
Week 1: 3-9
MLB Picks
***Keep in mind, we are predicting the whole outcome before the series is even played.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies, 3 game series.
***Notes: No Kenley Jansen as a closer for Dodgers. Higher attitude and humidity will give hitters an advantage over pitching. Rockies bullpen has been shaky as of late, allowing SD Padres and SF Giants to put up some runs.
GM1: Kershaw vs Gray (Total = 9) OVER
-About 4-6 Rockies hitters with great hitting % against Kershaw.
-Kershaw has pitched into the 6th inning in his last 10 starts giving up 4 at most in 6 innings.
-Gray has average 6 innings as well. His shortest inning is 4 against the SF Giants in which he allowed 5 runs. 5 runs is the most he’s given in his 10 game stretch.
GM2: Buehler vs Freeland (I would chose this one to be the duel of the pitchers.)
GM3: Wood vs Anderson OVER(Pitching Change so scratch).
-Lots of Rockies hitter with great hitting % against Wood.
Breakdown: Both teams got hitters that can hit. I’m expecting a shootout in this series. I can almost sense at least 2 of 3 will go over. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot and first place in their division. Totals are normally set at least at 10 in games that are placed in Colorado. So anything lower is consider pretty low for example a 9 is equivalent to a 7 in a different stadium. Probably wont see anything lower than 9 at Coors field. Both team has suspect bullpens to definitely consider.
Stats from games played in Colorado between these two teams. Here is the compile totals (1st 5/FG): 11/19, 7/16, 10/17, 2/13, 7/9, 2/5, and 2/7.
So we have 4 games out of 7 going above 11.
5 games out 7 reaching a minimum of 9.
Do not recall Kershaw pitching any of these games though. Not that he scares anyone.
CFB Picks
1H Houston Cougars -2
Why? Houston Cougars are led by offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. Who is that? He’s the son that ran the offense for Baylor back when they were good like the RG3 era. He also spent a season at FAU running that offense with Lane Kiffin, that’s why their offense was so good last year and not so much this year. They got experience in the QB, stud WR/RBs and a Top 3 pick DE. They started very slow last week against a garbage RICE team, absolutely garbage start. But they clean things up and throttle RICE in the 2H. They put up 300 passing yards and 200 rushing. Now they come home to open their homecoming game against Arizona. Arizona is now run by head coach Kevin Sumlin who used to coach Texas AM. He started the season with 0-1 with the loss coming from a BYU team (IMO not a very good team, but pretty decent defense). BYU was able to contain that offense before scoring 3 straight touchdowns against Arizona. Arizona has always had problems defensively that’s why they have to go on shootout games with teams. Rumor has it that Arizona conditioning is not on par this season so that may have some truth to it. Tate was a superstar last year, but now people have video tapes on him and how he play. No surprises if he has a down year. I expect HOU to come out strong in the 1H and put pressure on Arizona early. If you make Arizona QB Tate play catch up with his arm, then you are in good position to win the game.
NFL Picks
7pt TEASER: BAL -0.5 & LAR +3
-Why Baltimore Ravens? First, they got more veterans and experience. They got home field advantage and a clutch kicker in Justin Tucker. They also got a great coach who makes great calls and adjustments. Buffalo, is starting Nate Peterman (he threw 5 INT in one game last year lol). I’m sure Peterman will be better, but he does have a bad O-line. Not sure what the McCoy situation is. Offensively, they should be a little worst compared to when they had Tyrod Taylor who can make plays with his feet. Buffalo defense should still be solid. I expect Baltimore to pull out the victory with the home opener.
-Why Los Angeles Rams? They have great coach who makes great calls. Bunch of veteran players with playoff experience. Top 5 RB. Dynamic offense. But the main course: a very nasty defense put together this off season. This may be the dream defense that Wade Philips needs. Remember Wade Philips put together that #1 Denver defense a few season ago and it was lights out. You got Donald and Suh on the D-line, and Talib and Peters on the corners. My goodness. Raiders, new coach debut, normally and what I’ve been seeing in college, new head coachses debut has not look good so far for football. It will take time for things to gel together. Raiders don’t have much going on except maybe for offense. They gave away their #1 defensive player. They were TRASH last year on defense and now you give away your one guy who can put pressure on defense. Opponents should be able to score at will against this team…TOP 5 worst defense is my prediction.
Conclusion: I expect a easy 3-1 outcome if not a perfect sweep between these 4 plays. These are the most confident plays. Normally we like to release them the day of so we can get more additional information. But these are our vision and we will see our vision through with success.
Welcome back everyone to Blog #4 of our weekend MLB analysis.
LAST WEEKEND WAS AMAZING! We went 17-5 overall on our bets and 9-3 overall on our weekend MLB analysis. Very profitable heading into football season. We will still put most of our emphasis on MLB while investing about 30% into college football this weekend.
*****Keep in mind, this is all forecast outcomes before the series even start. We are predicting each outcome for each game of the weekend series ahead.
Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1 Blog#3: 9-3
Blog #3 Summary: Last weekend was another success to the book. We sweep the LAD and OAK series for 6-0 while going 3-3 with the PHI and CHC game. PHI was a big time moose imo, took them game 3 to show up, looks like the got bullpen problem. So far we are able to get a good read and forecast for these games so far for 3 weekend straight and we will be going for our 4th, but this time it will be harder because we are picking some playoff contention series to work with so definitely follow cautiously. Make sure to read each breakdown/conclusion as some games we will focus more specifically on the totals of the series rather than the games of matchup.
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox, 4 Game Series
GM1: Porcello vs Golito
GM2: Eovaldi vs Kopech (Most likely POUNDER game)
GM3: Rodriguez vs Rodon
GM4: Johnson vs Shields
Breakdown: First off Chicago has had a great run the last 10 game or so prior to this series. Boston on the other hand come into this series with 2 losses against CLE and 3 losses to TB. Losing is necessary in order to win in the post season because they need to learn to adapt adjust and mentally absorb a loss to get better. Theres only 30 games left (1 month left) so it is crunch time and turn up the engine mode for the Red Sox. I expect Red Sox to light it up and take 3-1 minimum of 4 games. White sox bullpen not very good, so expect some good team total over bets. Anything 4.5/5 is good to bet. I will have lots of wager on them in this series.
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics, 4 Game Series
GM1: LeBlanc vs Montas
GM2: Leake vs Fiers (Over as well).
GM3: Paxton vs Anderson
GM4: Hernandez vs Jackson
Breakdown: Two teams that can compete. Both teams have the offense to compete. But the bullpen edge goes to OAK for sure.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers, 4 Game Series
GM1: Robbie Ray vs Rich Hill (Over 7.5)
GM2: Greinke vs Ryu
GM3: Corbin vs Kershaw
GM4: Buchholz vs Buehler
Breakdown: Arizona and LA Dodgers always have a pretty fun matchup as they both can put runs on each other. Unlike SD Padres, who only put up 1-4-3 runs respectively against the dodgers, I know the Diamondbacks can put up 4 per game on the Dodgers pitching staff. Likewise for Diamondbacks pitching, I have watch them this season and they too are nothing to fear. Should be some nice scoring games in this series, predicting 3 of 4 games to hit the over. As long as totals stay within the 8 range, it is a worthy investment. Arizona is coming into this series losing 4/5 of the last 7/8 games, so they are in quite a slump especially offensively. Dodgers on the other hand come into this series winning the last 4/5 games in a row, so they got good mojo especially with their offense.
Conclusion: We will focus our majority of money on investing on the total for these games, as I feel like this is where the advantage is for us.
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres, 4 Game Series
GM1: Marquez vs Lauer
GM2: Senzatela vs Kennedy
GM3: Gray vs Erlin
GM4: Freeland vs Nix
Breakdown: Wow, the PADRES sweep the Wild Card contending Mariners, now that’s something. But let’s be real, SD does show out occasionally just like how they whooped on MIL and CHC…But they can also be very bad as well. Mariners is just so anemic, one day they good one day they bad. But to analyze them right now, Mariners have poor pitching and hot/cold batting. Based on this line up from SD, pretty much all of the weaker pitchers are in line for this weekend matchup. So with that said, I expect the Rockies to take 3-1 in this series.
Welcome back everyone to Blog #3 of our weekend MLB analysis.
Keep in mind, this is all forecast outcomes before the series even start. We are predicting each outcome for each game of the weekend series ahead.
Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1
Blog #2:
Man, we killed that ARI vs SD game AGAIN!!! Maybe SD just a easy team to read haha. But went with ARI for 3 games and the one game that we chose SD (game 3) it hit and that was nice +150 dog hitter thanks to the fact that since they got beat easily first two games it inflated the dog. We went 4-0 here.
As for the MIL vs STL game. We went 1-1, we went with MIL rookie game 1 and they got taken care of easily as Brewers had no defense what so ever and a dead offense. Game 2 we pass as it was a coin flip in my opinion. Game 3 we went with MIL again and luckily they squeaked out a win by the hair of their chinny chin chin. We went 1-1 here.
***POUNDER GAME***
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers, 3 Game Series
GM1: Richards vs Hill
GM2: Kennedy vs Kershaw
GM3: Erlin vs Wood
Breakdown: Look, the Dodgers need a nice series sweep, what better team than the garbage SD Padres. If they want to get closer to a playoff berth they will need to beat these guys. So prediction is Dodgers win 2-1 minimum with an expectation of 3-0 sweep. SD pitching is nothing to be scare of and they are one of the weaker offensive teams. I expect LA Dodgers to score like 5 runs each game kind of like how the Arizona Diamonbacks did against these Padres. Dodgers offensive arsenal should show up in this series.
Conclusion: I say Dodgers make a sweep, with two of the wins covering the -1.5 RL and maybe one game being a 1 run win. Dodgers will average 5-6 runs per game. The over on these games can be a potential play as well as LA bullpen is very bad at the moment so keep an eye out on that. As long as team total is 5 or less, its a play.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs, 4 Game Series
GM1: DeSclafani vs Hamels
GM2: Harvey vs Mills (Rookie/No namer)
GM3: Castillo vs Quintana
GM4: Bailey vs Hendricks
Breakdown: I also look forward to the Cubs to have an offensive show out in this series as well. Will look forward to barreling on them team totals in this series as well as the Dodgers.
Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins, 4 Game Series
GM1: Cahill vs Stewart (Rookie)
GM2: Manaea vs Odorizzi
GM3: Fiers vs Gonsalves (Rookie)
GM4: Anderson vs Berrios
Breakdown: I really don’t see why the OAK don’t score a bunch on these guys, especially like 2 rookies on deck. The only thing I can see affecting the As players are the weather condition. A’s offense should be able to feast on pretty much all of these pitchers.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Bluejays, 3 Game Series
GM1: Arrieta vs Borucki (Rookie)
GM2: Pivetta vs Sanchez
GM3: Velasquez vs Estrada
Breakdown: Toronto just swept the MIGHTY Orioles…wow, sike, not impressive at all. The Phillies just got themselves a huge win against the nationals. Now they get to face some mediocre BJs. This is a huge upgrade in pitching that TOR will be facing, but if their bats work it works. I don’t expect Phillies to sweep the Bluejays, but if they want to contend for a playoff berth, they will need to win 2-1 which is exactly what I’m predicting.
Conclusion: We will ride them all 3 games and hope to go 2-1 at the very minimum.
Last time we broke down some game analysis and was pretty damn on point. Only thing was, we didn’t put our money where our mouth (analysis) is.
BOS 4-0, covered all RLs
SEA 4-0, cover all + moneyline (+130, +200, +200, +190)
SD 3-0, covered all moneyline
WAS 1-2, Only got Tanner Roark ml. They choked game 3 for walk off grand slam.
We predicted Boston to win at least 3 of 4 games against the Baltimore Orioles. The outcome was that they won all 4 games and covered all of the RL / ml as well. They averaged like 5.5/6 points per game as well, so they probably hit like 3 team total over 5.
The other game we predicted well, was Seattle, I knew they would take 2 games from Houston, but DAMN they swept them like easy peasy. Seattle were huge +200 underdogs in each match except game 1. They won all 4 just like Boston. Great money make on both these series but yet we did not capitalize.
We also correctly hit each of the games in the SD vs PHI match up. We predicted 3 for 3, 100%. Though the offense tighten up and they did not average 4 points per game anymore, they did well with their pitching staff to hold down the Phillies. We knew Aaron Nola is to legit, thus we rode them to beat the Padres.
NOW…let’s break down a few series…BUT… this time we put our money where our mouth is!
ARI vs SD, 4 game series.
GM1: Claybol vs Nix (Rookie)
-CASHED IN the 1st 5 ml with ARI.
GM2: Ray vs Lucchesi (Like the over in this game)
GM3: Godley vs Richards
GM4: Grienke vs Kennedy (Rookie)
This is what we think. Arizona takes 3-1 out of this 4 games series minimum. SD is one of the worst if not THE worst home baseball teams this year. SD is 22-41 at home. Arizona this year alone is leading 8 games to 3 against SD thus far. SD is very anemic on offense. They traded away a lot of power pitching staff away. So pretty much they have no offense and below average pitching. The trick is predict which game SD has the best chance to win, OR we can just take Arizona each game and at this rate we will cash 3 out of 4.
Conclusion: Arizona takes 3 out of 4 games at least. And if I had to pick a game that SD can win, it will be Richards against Godley solely based on the a gut feeling that since Godley had 3 solid starts, he’s due to lose one. If Ray win like how we predict them to today, it would set up SD at a high ml dog play on Saturday…just something to note.
ONE MORE GAME!
MIL vs STL, 3 game series.
GM1: Peralta (Rookie) vs Flaherty (Rookie)
GM2: Miley vs Mikolas
GM3: Anderson vs Gant
So what do we know, STL won 7 in a row before losing to Nationals last night. They were playing fantastic baseball, but yesterday they played some poor defense and got taken advantage of. Milwaukee, they got POWER, they can hit the long ball, they got a stingy bull pen, but for some reason they were in a funk and just couldn’t win series. 1-2 against SD, 1-2 against ATL, 1-1 against the Cubs. So overall they won 3 and loss 5 on their last 7 games. Brewers can score, but they need to put it together and their pitching needs to keep it clean for 6 solid innings if possible. Baseball is all about timing. Everything has to connect. What I mean is, when your pitcher is doing good, HOOK HIM UP WITH SOME RUN SUPPORT. When you got runner in scoring position, CAPITALIZE, then let the bullpen come in and lock the game up. This goes for ALL teams.
Brewers currently lead 7 games to 6 against the Cardinals. So far it is a tight battle between the two. Brewers take 2-1 in this series as they come back to life for the wild card. Don’t get it twisted, nationals were on the tail of beating Cardinals in a few games if not for their faulty bullpen.
Sup everyone, just got done with a huge project for the month of July, so now I fully have the time to put into more of sports capping, maybe that’s why my August result has been better? Haha who knows. Sports capping is all about trends, patterns, situational and emotional stages, data statistics and MOST IMPORTANTLY… a little luck as well.
As far as MLB, this is actually my first full season, so I have to be a little happy with how things gone so far. I think the major mistake in this year MLB capping is too much money/picks invested in the team totals and game totals. Spreads and moneyline bets at least we have the chance to win without depending on a certain amount of points being scored or not scored. But from time to time, it is easy for me to predict when a team will score or not specially with the top 5 offenses or currently hot batting teams.
Now on to some analysis and predictions.
Games we will emphasize on this weekend:
PHI @ SD, 3 Games Series
-GM 1: EFFIN 3.61 vs SD Rookie 0.00
PHI -135 ml
-GM 2: NOLA 2.37 vs Lockett 9.28
PHI -250 ml (my guess, lines not out)
-GM 3: ARRIETA 3.11 vs LUCCHESI 3.70
PHI -140 ml (my guess)
At first just by instincts and what I see from both teams. SD has a lot of momentum mojo right now. They took 2 of 4 from Cubs and 2 of 3 from the Brewers. That is 4 of 7 from playoff contenders which is quite impressive. Also, SD batting has scored 4+ in each of their last 7 games, so yes, their bats are HOT. Because of their momentum and wild gut prediction, my first guess was that SD could potentially sweep the Phillies before looking at all the pitching matchups. But I guess the only concern with that is NOLA is playing in this series, so perhaps they will win 2 of 3 instead but who knows… Baseball is not always about pitching matchups. Sometimes, when the bats are working and are hot, it doesn’t matter what is thrown. Onto PHI. PHI is one team that no one really predicted to developed so quickly after a terrible year last year. But now, they are sitting in a playoff seat pending ATL and WAS who are right behind their alley. PHI is a pretty solid team, but like all teams, some time, your bats aren’t there. They got blanked last time out against Arizona. They scored 2pts, 5pts, and 0pts averaging about 2.3 per game. One thing about this team, that people need to know is that they have one of the worst defense of baseball. If that holds true vs a hot batting team like SD. SD will be looking good.
Conclusion: SD take the series 2-1. Again these are just wild predictions based on momentum, stats, and some guessing.
WAS @ CHC, 3 Games Series
-GM1: Hellickson vs Hendricks
CHC ml -145
-GM2: Roark vs Lester
CHC ml -160 (my guess, lines not out)
-GM3: Scherzer vs Hamels
WAS ml -200 (my guess, lines not out)
WAS currently in 3rd place in their division, they have lots of ground to cover if they want to make a push for playoffs or wildcard. To do that, it starts with winning. They haven’t had any sweeps yet, so one here would do wonder and position them very well. They need sweeps with about 40 games left to go. They have talent, just need to execute it. Bryce Harpers has been lights out since All-stars, so it’s a big plus to have him back in the lineup. Cubs have played against mediocre competition so far. 7 games vs KC and SD whom are under 50 wins, so that’s not saying a lot. The Cubs didn’t sweep any of the series so that’s disappointing. The Cubs, one thing we learn is very inconsistent. One day they on, one day they off. They haven’t had a class 7 game win streak like Yankees, Astros, Redsox or even Athletics. They just came off a brutal beating by KC 9-0 romper lol. My gut tells me Washington takes this series with at least 2-1 win. Very good chance they sweep if Lester has another snooze fest again.
Conclusion: Washington takes 3-0 / 2-1 series win. Inching their way back into playoff talks.
SEA vs HOU, 4 Game Series
-I won’t break down this game like the previous two because Seattle has won 1 game already. But before the series started, I had a feeling that Seattle will make some ground by taking at least 2 games from HOU. HOU is in a big hole with injuries. They got lucky and took 2 Wins from a pathetic SF bullpen. SEA look really weak with their pitching, but they do have the offense to keep them in the game and a closer to seal the deal.
-Since I won’t make predictions here, I will definitely be on the radar to bet on Seattle again before the weekend is over.
BOS vs BAL, 4 Game Series
-Look, Baltimore is really bad, perhaps the worst pitching staff in MLB. They have some hitters but they are inconsistent and never dependable. Boston, best team in MLB, simply said, with that said, I do hope they DONT break that 116 game win season, because that’s never a good sign, for example, Golden State Warriors setting the regular season wins then losing championship. Patriots 17-0 Season then losing to Giants in Super Bowl.
-Anyways, Boston will take AT LEAST 3 games of 4 here. They will probably be around -200 moneyline price range for the whole game, so including them in parlays will probably be the best bet unless you like paying high juice favorites. I will look for some situations to back them at the -1.5 RL spreads this weekend.
Here are some of my thoughts on some matchups that I like. All official locked plays will be posted on my Instagram story / post and of course on my free VIP group list.
Yesterday we went 2-1 with our locked in plays.
Atlanta Braves took home a W for us which was our Play of the Day.
SF Giants took a beating but that was expected. L
Houston Rocket straight up win helped seal our night in profit. W.
POD: Play of the day. Arizona Diamondbacks ml +105
Explanations and thoughts:
Last post, we talked about how the Diamondbacks are struggling and they are a situational play at this point. Clearly they loss a ton of games. That is why we sat out of the play to spectate the outcome which could help lead us to a play for today.
Diamondbacks definitely showed signs of battle against the Brewers. It’s hard to trust a team on a slump. But that is why in the world of capping, there are “Situational Spots” & “Due Theory”.
This is a great spot to back them and take them as a dog with no juice. We will be on this play for 2-4 units.
FOD: Favorite of the day. Chicago Cubs ml -170
Explanations and thoughts:
The Indians got things rolling yesterday and it was a great win for them. But I can’t fully respect because it was against Chatwood who is top 5 in walks and as you can see he walked like 5 or more batters. They definitely took advantage and smoked him.
Indians starter is playing his second major league start of the season. He had a decent first start, but now he is on the road and against a team that just got blown out.
Stats: Lester is (20-2) in home night games. Lester is (8-3) against Cleveland with an ERA of 3. Cleveland is (1-10) in their last 11 games following a win. Let’s not forget Cleveland still has one of the most garbage bullpen.
Just going to state facts. Braves and McCarthy owns the Phillies 3-0 Wins with games going 15-2, 7-3, 10-1 in that span. He averaged 5.1 innings per game while giving up about 1.5 runs per game. Velasquez on the other hand have not fair so well against the Braves. Velasquez average 4 innings per game against the Braves while giving up about 5 runs per game against them. Pretty much McCarthy and the Braves OWNS Velasquez and the Phillies in this matchup. Just facts.
The Braves are also (13-4) after a loss this season.
No I’m not chasing after yesterday loss. Playing it solely based on evidence of findings which leads to an advantage for the Braves.
DOD: Dog of the day. Arizona Diamondbacks ml +135
Explanations and thoughts:
They have clearly loss a ton of games over the last 13 games or so. Out of the 13 games, they only won like 1. Public will be riding the Brewers, no one will be putting any money on the Diamondbacks at this point. In conclusion, this is the exact spot to take the diamondbacks at dog value.
Pretty much there are spots where we can apply the “Due Theory” like the over for Boston over 205 last night. Nothing huge to bet on, but there is value for this spot.
Let’s say they don’t win. You can apply the “Chase Theory” and double up your bet on them the next game (Wednesday @ +112 ML).
FOD: Favorite of the day. Washington Nationals -175
Explanations and thoughts:
After getting swept by the Dodgers, they are awake and well. Bats were steaming hot. You get a Padres team who overachieved (3-1) against the Pitts Pirates. I can see the Nationals sweeping if not taking at least 2 of the first 3 games.
Add it to a Parlay if you don’t like the high juiced line.
TOD: Total of the day. SEA vs OAK over 8.5
Explanations and thoughts:
Both team been batting well especially the As. Nice breeze to help boost hitters in this game and improve home run chances.
SLEEPER of the night?! San Francisco Giants ml +230 / +1.5 RL
Explanations and thoughts:
Gut feeling more than anything. San Francisco bats are steaming up the last two games. Maybe it will carry into tonight’s game and give an upset. +230 ML is a lot. Cole been pitching lights out, but it only takes a couple hits to change that.
Let me tell you one thing. This Jaguars defense is one of the best in the last 2 decades. Make no mistake about that. If you like Denver defense back when Manning was playing, you’ll like this defense more, because their LB core can actually cover guys. Giving this vaulted defense 7.5 points is insane. But I guess the counter to this is Blake Bortle, it always come down to Bortles. It’s funny that no one gives him respect, but telling you, if he’s on his A game, this team will beat anybody. Same can be said about Big Ben, he will always have his classic 3 pick game every 5 games. You rattle this guy, he will melt like butter. Advantage on defense is greatly for the JAX. Offense will go in favor for PIT obviously. I suggest that Brown don’t play this game, if they do make it to the conference championship game. They will need him in that game. Also, he will not be 100%, he will be more of a reliability if he does play.
Tennessee vs New England -13 / 48
What a comeback victory for TEN. But you know what, I can’t give them that much credit because KC has been bad all year and they are known for choking. I understand Kelce did not play the 2H, but cmon, 0 points? 19 unanswered from TEN, KC barely scrape up 100 yards in the 2nd Half after putting up nearly 300 in the first half. TEN now gets +13 points against the Patriots, I bet dog lovers are salivating the 13 points. Make no mistake 13 points is a lot, but is that enough versus a top notch team like the patriots? Patriots is led by arguably the best QB/Coach tandem in NFL history. They had extra week to prepare and study film on the Titans. From the film I saw, in the first half, Tyreek Hill speed was too much for Titans defense. Travis Kelce ate them alive as well and it opened up holes for Kareem Hunt. When you have 2 players that demands double team, it makes it very hard for the defense to play well. Double team opens up the run game. KC was on fire pretty much the first half. So let’s look at Patriots: they have Brandon Cooks, their speedster and deep threat. Gronk their TE. These two will demand double team from a weak Titans secondary. Let’s not forget Chris Hogan, Amendola, and surprise surprise, Dion Lewis baby. The passing attack is going to be deadly come this weekend. 300 yards in the air is going to happen and it will open up the run game which will produce 100 yards on the ground. Make no mistake, NE coaching staff been there and done that, they simply know how to win. Don’t forget, you have the Goat QB and Goat Coach. NE simply needs to control TEN run game, and let their star paid Corners lock up TEN WR. NE linebacker and pass rush isn’t the same as before, but their secondary is improved. So they can focus a little more on the middle coverages and play man outside. TEN on the road again, but this time won’t be so lucky.
New Orleans vs Minnesota -4 / 46
What I know: Winner of this game will most likely go on to the Super Bowl.
Atlanta vs Philly +3 / 40
What I know: Matt Ryan and the falcons are known for playing indoors. This game will be out in the cold where temperature will be low. Matt Ryan and the falcons historically are not known for being great outdoor team specifically cold weather. Factor that in. Nick Foles, last two week of the season he looked like complete trash. But will this fool anyone…maybe he does look like trash and then all of a sudden he plays like a god come this weekend…Atlanta defense look great last weekend, that was the thing I was amazed with, it looked solid, it may look solid again against Foles. Philly will need to rely on the run game and defense in order to come away with a win. Tall task for the Eagles.
Nick Saban is 11-0 vs all of his former assistants who went on to become head coaches.
Teams who are on redemption tour and make it to the championship game, are 80% of the time going to accomplish winning at a high clip.
It’s pretty rare to see a freshman QB lead their team to a championship victory. (Joshua Hurts made it to the championship last year and his team failed short of winning).
TEAM ADVANTAGE POINT
Offense-Advantage goes to Bama.
QB-Bama (Hurts does not make much mistakes)
RB-Push (Both team with 2 stud running backs)
Defense-Advantage goes to Georgia.
Bama is very thin on defense, and due to the many injuries they encounter it puts them in a disadvantage. But make no mistake, if they were healthy, advantage would be Bama since they got top notch talent.
Special Teams
Injuries
Side Notes
After seeing each team compete in the playoffs, some things to note: Clemson has no offense, and Bama defense literally stop them from moving the ball. Georgia the team with the better defense could not contain Oklahoma offense and barely escape a win during sudden death OT.
So from the Sugar Bowl game, not much to take from that game as Clemson QB is trash with no passing game. So we can’t really credit Bama defense too much, but when you turn the ball over that defense make plays all day. Bama did manage to move the ball fairly decent against arguably the best defense in college (Clemson).
Rose Bowl, Georgia had to make a comeback to win this game and literally almost game it right back to Oklahoma before going into overtime. That to me is a no no. Georgia should have controlled the game from start to finish and kept it close the whole time. If you have a better run game and better defense and can’t keep it close the whole game or dominate them, that tells me something. Oklahoma has no defense, no excuse you can’t stay close.
Conclusion
I can see Georgia moving the ball on Bama defense a little better than what Clemson could do. But they will not do anything close to the way their offense played against Oklahoma, believe that. Bama offense did not produce very much points against a top 3 defense, but they should produce a little better against Georgia’s defense. This game will come down to the QB that will be clutch and perform the best. I have a hard time believing a freshmen QB will win a championship. With that said, this game will probably be close, unless the freshmen lose his cool and just completely shutdown and get blown out.
Live Dogs for wild card weekend:
ATL +5.5/6.5
CAR +6.5/7
7 point teaser:
KC -1/-1.5 & CAR +13.5
Wager: 5 units
Why KC? Because they are the more experience team with playoff experience and better coach. Their team was definitely in a slump which consisted of like 6 straight losses? But they peak at the right time and are running hot. They have the speed and mismatches that will give TEN defense fits. TEN first time back in the playoffs in a while, first time for Mr. Mariota. For me personally, I am not a big fan of first time QB in the playoffs unless your team is built to make it far. TEN has played piss poor the whole season. Nothing great about them. They made it into the playoffs by beating some garbage teams. No Demarco Murray for them so it will be Derrick Henry legs for the run game. Let’s not forget to mention that Mariota QB stats this year is horrendous. He has more INT than TDs…They need a new coach and new offense. KC also has home field advantage. KC is clearly the better team with the better momentum coming into playoffs.
Why JAX? So it will be first time playoff for both Mr. Bortles and Mr. Taylor. Both whom aren’t amazing at QB. But Bortles did show flashes of some great games and good accuracy throwing the ball and making no mistakes. He did all that with no big name WR. Bills are also a team that plays a ugly offense, nothing flashy like Jags. A big question mark is if McCoy will play or not. If not, that is a huge blow to the Bills offense as he is the heart and soul of the team. No run game, one less guy to catch the ball, no extra blocking for the QB. This game will come down to 2 factors, defense and mistakes. I’m a big fan of that JAX defense, reminds me of that Denver defense back when Peyton was still playing. JAX talk the talk and walk the walk, the defense itself can carry the team.
Why CAR +6.5/7? This will be the third time these two team will meet in a single season. NO has gotten the best of both rounds winning by a margin of double digit each time. If history is right, it’s very difficult to beat a team 3 times in a row. These two teams are no stranger from each other so that itself will tell you, this game will be close, no blowouts here. Offense obviously looks better from NO side and I’d give the defense edge to CAR as I really like the way their LBs play and hold down for the team. Xfactor will be Cam Newton, if he comes to play, they are very dangerous. If you can grab 7.5 points on CAR, I believe that will be a winner. This game will stay within a touchdown for sure.
Why ATL +5.5/6.5? Is it because of redemption of choking in the Super Bowl? No. It’s because they have experience and veterans. I think their Offensive Coordinator is probably the worst play caller, his style holds back what this offense can do. On the defensive side, they are pretty solid and can make plays. LAR, boy does this Coach Mcvay deserve credit, cause he made Goff looked better than what he actually is lol. Goff understands the offense because the offense is simple, that’s why it works. But Goff is still a second year and this is his first playoff appearance, don’t expect much from him, he made goof it up. But they have RB MVP Gurley to hold down the fort. He will do the carrying as per usual. Wade Philip is a great defensive mind coach, I give his defense the edge. This game does have potential to be a shootout.
Wow!!! This year has flown by so fast! 2017 has been a great year in sports for us overall—we have had a successful year by building a great foundation and loyal following. We will continue to strive for nothing but success in the upcoming new year and hope that you all will join us! Thank you for all your support and we wish you a very blessed and prosperous 2018!
Another successful completion for the month of October. The goal will always be to profit and to have consistent long term success. Some weeks may be slower than others, but always keep in mind, one day at a time, one week at a time.
Recap:
-September +61 units (60%)
-October +49 units (60%)
-November (Goal 50 units, 65%)
Last week, we went 11-6 with a hot 8-1 run on 2nd half plays! Finally picking up some steam on them 2H plays. We were able to pick up about 10 units for the week. All of last week plays and unit count will be posted below in an excel, checkout our weekly stats to see how we do each week.
If you’re looking for a consistent capper who will give you long term profit, whether you looking to add $200 or $2000 more to your monthly income, look no further. I offer the best rate, $200/month which includes all my plays and 2H picks too which just went 8-1 last week and 12-1 which include leans.
A lot of cappers who charge a leg and arm for their picks don’t even keep track of their picks. They celebrate when they win, then stop keeping track when the losses start to pile up. Some cappers bet 10 units, lose then they say next play is 20 units, then all in max bet 50 units. All they do is chase and place bigger wages to cover their losses when their win/lose percent is way below 55%. SMH. I keep it real, I post all my plays/picks here, and I break down the percentages for you. Join a real one and see what actually goes down.
I will try and post more free plays this week.
Statistic Breakdown(To view the entire season’s statistics, please visit the “Statistic Recaps” tab)
Lesson of the Week: “Parlays and teasers are for suckers…unless you can make it a profit opportunity!”
We are coming off of a nice 7-1 NFL week which definitely contributed to a very profitable October. If you don’t remember, our goal was to achieve at least 50 units per month! We still haven’t caught fire yet in college football but hopefully my adjustments this week will help. We are currently sitting at 59.3% for the month of October (35W24L) and +39 units (Probably -3 or -5 unit in juices).
As I mentioned before for NFL, there is no juggernaut in this league. Everyone is very beatable. The team that plays the cleanest, is most disciplined, and has better coaching will win the game & cover. The only team that truly sucks is Cleveland lol. I’m currently eyeing a very big play for this Sunday, hopefully lines will be small.
Lots of ranked match up games for this upcoming Saturday. So this Saturday is going to be intense for college football. We may see a couple of undefeated teams get their first loss of the season this weekend. That means there’s a good chance to make money!
I hope everyone enjoyed the free play I posted! If you played both my NFL and parlay, then you would have made a nice 4.5 units! Keep checking daily for free plays as I will update my website. I will probably post 2 this week (no NBA this time).
Statistic Breakdown(To view the entire season’s statistics, please visit the “Statistic Recaps” tab)
A very nice 9-1 run to end the week.
Sept YTD Profit: +61 units
Oct YTD Profit: +39 units
It’s amazing how similar sports gambling is to the stock market. Consistently have to watch the lines, the public, where the money is flowing, is the line adjustment correct, is one team really better than the other, is it too good to be true, is line inflated, is there value, etc.
“Never get too high on the highs and never feel too low on the lows.”
This phrase is a good principle to follow because it will help us control our emotions better throughout this long journey of sports gambling. When we win big, embrace it but also don’t get over yourself and lose focus on what matters. The long run. And when we have a losing day or week. Don’t be so down on yourself and waste so much energy dwelling. It happens, but there is always another day or week to profit again. We want to stay calm, collective, and focused.
So what have we learned from football over the past 6-7 weeks? Clemson and Alabama are the best college football teams thus far. Vastly more superior than all the other team. Even though Clemson lost, it was due to them not having a healthy QB and the coach putting in the wrong replacement. Don’t let that lost confuse you. Penn St IMO will make the playoff this year. They should’ve made it last year. Georgia looks good thus far, played some weak competition but they got the tools to succeed.
Top 4 College Teams
-Clemson
-Alabama
-Penn St
-Georgia (Ohio St will probably be #4).
Some undefeated teams that we will keep an eye on are, Wisconsin, Miami, and TCU, South Florida and UCF. We should keep an eye on these teams, because they will eventually get their first loss. We can make good money off these situation as long we pick the right spots. TCU, Wisconsin and Miami have a pretty high chance of losing because they play in a very competitive conference. Big 12, Big 10, ACC, pretty much Power 5 conferences.
NFL: after thinking about it, there is absolutely no team that is a clear #1 team. One day a team can look like super bowl contenders, the next time, pretenders. Seriously, I thought KC looked good but they are still missing a x factor on offense. Steelers are like ying and yang lol. Patriots should not even exist with a defense like that. Everyone has weaknesses. Sucks that Aaron Rodger went down, he made football fun to watch. Maybe Hundley can be Dak 2.0? AP looked good for Arizona but don’t fall in love just yet, he is useless in passing situation.
Statistic Breakdowns
Last month we profited about 60 units for the month of September. Right now for October we are at 19 units (We are a little less than that if we calculate loss juice in there). Let’s stay consistent and focused and win 60 units per month.
I know everyone love actions and betting on games. But we have to stay patient and attack the right ones. There are games I wished I bet and there are games I wished I didn’t but that’s part of the game.
Advantage Capping Methods
NE defense is very bad, I don’t think they will ever get better. Any team that plays them can score on them. Depending on the opponent and how they fair the last two weeks. Team total is a solid value play against a team like NE. This week we have ATL coming to town on a Sunday Night primetime game.
IND also have a very bad defense, 2nd worst next to NE. They are even more terrible on the road giving up 35pts to opponents lol. Team Total has value, again you must understand how the other team is doing and if there is motivation. TEN for example previous 2 games put up 14 & 10 points. This week they put up 29 points, not counting that last minute TD. Using advantages in situational opportunities can pay off. IND also is a terrible 2nd Half team. Allow many teams to catch up or at least cover the spread for 2nd H.
Be careful backing QBs or players returning from injury. It normally takes them a game back before feeling normal. Not sure the ATS for this theory, but its pretty high 70% I would say. But Mariota was one instance that it did not matter. Why? Maybe because the other team is garbage (IND). Good thing to watch out for in the future. Don’t get too excited when a QB is returning, always question how is he and is he 120%.
Free Personal Plays (Will be updated throughout the week, check daily).
1. Top NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins moneyline 10/22.
2. Top NFL Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 10/22.
Parlay both 1 unit to win 2.5 units.
3. NBA Pick: Toronto Raptors -12, 10/19 (They should dominate this dysfunctional Bulls team. Yes of course, any teams can come out and play lowly to their opponent level. Raptors give a B+ effort, they will cover. Bulls will probably be this year worst team if you really think about it. They lost all their good players. Now two of their more veteran players who contribute a good chunk of points are gone due to injury and suspension Portis and Mirotic. No Jimmy, no Rondo. Not sure if Zach Lavine is good to play yet. They will look like a bunch of D-leaguer on this opener night for Raptors. Should if Bulls play a solid first half, I’ll be gladly to re-invest in Raptors 2nd Half).
4. NBA Pick: Phoenix Suns ml, 10/20 (On Wednesday, they open the season up against the Blazers and had a historic blowout loss by 48 points. I mean that is inexcusable. They just could not hit any shots, or find rhythm with one another. Even though they are a young team, they are pretty solid chemistry wise compared to the Lakers. Lakers are athletic but they play a ton of 1 on 1 ball, they like to hold the ball very long. That’s why they drafted Lonzo Ball to help get the passing game going, but it will take time for him to mold in as he has a very big target on his back and everyone will want to light him up. This is a great situational bet on the Suns, it has tremendous value, motivation to right the ship, home court advantage and reasons to play hard today. LA on a back to back).
Lesson of the Week: “A team that looked good last week may not look good this week. A team that looked bad last week may not look bad this week. This is called, the EYE TEST.”
**FREE PLAYS COMING SOON…FIND OUT WHEN AND WHERE!** For those of you who do not currently pay for my membership plans–I will be posting my personal picks (1 or 2), along with write ups on this week’s blog FOR FREE. These will be the same plays that my clients and I will also be investing in. STAY TUNED!
Stats Breakdown: September 11 – September 17
First off, it was one hell of an AMAZING week for both football and baseball!
Lets Recap:
NFL 6-3, +13.7 units (67%)
NCAAF 6-2, +9 units (75%)
MLB 7-2, +19 units (78%)
Total: 19-7, +41.7 units (73%)
We racked up 41.7 units in one week…HOLY SMOKES. For a regular $50/unit bettor, you would have made $2085, and for a regular $100/unit bettor you would have made $4170. ALL IN ONE WEEK folks. We blew all our expectations and bars this past week. But that doesn’t mean it stops there. If we can pick up 20 units per week, we are living the good life. We have many weeks to go until the end of the year. Lot’s of opportunity to make money and get ready for college bowl and NFL playoffs.
Over the past 2 weeks we have amassed +61.2 units. That is Excellence.
Below are the picks and data from the last 2 weeks:
YEAR TO DATE:
Classic membership 16-9, 64%
Premier membership 24-13, 65%
***Percentages does not reflect MLB plays***
Samples of Write-Up Plays:
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IT’S NOT TOO LATE TO JOIN! THE RATES ARE CHEAP AND I’M THE ONLY CAPPER THAT GIVES 2H PLAYS. =)
Checkout the Membership page for plans and prices. If you have any questions, email or message me on Instagram.
Discipline and money management will always be stressed. Always remind yourself these key principles so that you can have a successful and profitable long-term season.
Patience is truly a virtue. Winning does not mean we have to bet every game on the board. It means, having a bankroll ready to attack when a perfect opportunity arises. It’s better to be 3-1 on the week than 10-8. Just do the math.
Execution. Follow the system. I know we all have urges, especially in gambling. But if you stay true to the system and unit measure. Profit is almost guarantee.
Week 4 Plans:
As we mentioned, we absolutely crushed week 3 and netting 40+ units for the week.
This week we will aim to crush it again.
For NFL we will look to capture 3-7 games, hit 70% and net 10+ units.
For NCAAF we will look to capture 3-7 games, hit 70% and net 10+ units.
For MLB we will look to capture 3-5 games, hit 65% and net 5+ units.
Teaser, looking to hit 2-0 in teasers this week and netting 5+ units. Last week NFL teaser team of the day was TEN.
Our goal will be to make 30 units, it’s hard to top an amazing week, but if we can gain 20+ units each week. That is more than enough.
This Week’s Personal Plays: (Check frequently, one will potentially be a bomber man play, my strongest bet.)
Alabama -17 (I’m buying the points, but won’t need to if you cheap). PING PONG LING LONG PLAY OF THE MONTH.
*****We will be holding a contest and giving away a FREE weekend membership in the next upcoming weeks, so stay tuned!*****
Lesson of the Week: “Always buy the 1/2 point or 1 point. Don’t be cheap. Pay to play. Play to win.”
***It’s not too late to join this cheap membership while it last, prices will go up, so don’t wait folks***
WE ARE 12-4 LAST 16 FOOTBALL PLAYS 75%. OUR PARLAY IS 1-0.
Stats Breakdown: September 4 – September 10
Week 2 Breakdown (Football Only)
-Classic Members 8-4, 67%
-Premier Members 10-4, 71%
Got some bomber man plays this coming weekend. Join the train and cash with the team. Or sit on the sidelines and watch, choice is yours.
Let’s Small Talk
College Football:
Wow! Oklahoma +7.5 — I knew that it was a good value spread, but I didn’t expect them to lay a can of whoop ass on Ohio St and then stake them with the Okla flag in center field. You’ve got to love the disrespect lol.
Michigan youth showed up today too. They weren’t as nasty as I anticipated, but they sure can make plays and beat people defensively… just not top 4 worthy. Lamar Jackson is a freak athlete!— He may just win the Heisman again. I think it will likely boil down to Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson as the top 3 candidates.
The first week of college football is now complete and we are happy to report that we were able to rebound with a 9-2 (82%) on Saturday using the information we had from Week 1. I am looking forward to another solid weekend and hoping to deliver another 80% day!
NFL:
The Patriots’ defensive front 7 is just plain terrible. If you guys watched what I watched, you’d know that the opponent will have lots of time for the QB to make plays and run down the defense. Patriots will most likely be in shootout competition the next 4-5 weeks until they can fix their problems.
This weekend it seemed like approximately 80% of the games went under. Man, I bet a shit ton you guys lost money lol. That’s why it was smart to keep plays to a minimal this week…I learned that lesson from Week 1 of college. We only went 1-2 on Sunday which is significantly better than potentially going 2-5. Now we are set up for a great weekend 2 to cash in some big money!
Discipline and money management will always be stressed. Always remind yourself these key principles so that you can have a successful and profitable long-term season.
Week 3 Plans
College Football: Aiming for 70% win rate, about 5-8 picks. +10 units
NFL: Aiming for 70% win rate, about 3-7 picks. Goal +10 units.
Baseball: Aiming for 60% win rate, about 3-5 picks. Goal +5 units.
Free Plays
Looks like my free plays information hasn’t done well for you. But then again it is free. Let’s try again and see what we can do this time around for the poor.
7pt Teaser of the Week
– Tampa Bay Buccaneers pk / Washington Redskins +10
-I personally think Tampa Bay wins the division. Their defense is silently top 10, they added TJ Ward for Safety, not bad. Added Desean Jackson to the offense to put a deep threat play for Winston. They will be good this year. Redskins at +10 is a steal. You get a stingy Redskin defense against 2nd year man Goff.
NFL Pick of the Week
-Dallas Cowboys -1 @ Denver Broncos
Week 1 is always a hard week. Why? Because we don’t know enough of a team. So many variables and factors, but we can only make assumptions and predict. With that said, I definitely took a beating lol, I took a beating last year too on week 1 before I heated up weeks after. One bad week is nothing to worry about, now we focus on killing each and every single week from now on out!
Top 4 College Playoff Teams
Alabama-Coaching, Defense, Offense
Michigan-Coaching, Defense, Like the way the QB redeem himself after 2 picks
Ohio St-Coaching, Offense
Penn St.-Offense, Coaching
**Clemson, not impress yet.
Get ready, it’s going to be a good week!
Statistic Recaps for the week (Aug 28-Sept 3)
Baseball: 5-7
but we end up hitting 3-2 of them for big plays.
College Football: 2-6
Write-up Free Plays: 0-2
Classic Members: 1-3
Premier Members: 2-4
Bomber man Plays (Most strongest play): 0-1
Teaser of the week: 0-1
The Plan for the Week:
So with the NFL starting this week, we have many options of choices to select for our money to invest in. We have MLB, NCAAF and NFL. With that said, we will choose the best games with the highest chance to win.
Full games: we will have about 2-3 NFL plays, 2-5 NCAAF plays, and 2 MLB plays.
2nd Halfs: I will definitely be watching all games and attacking several plays this weekend. Looking to get about 2-3 solid College plays, and 1-2 NFL plays.
Goal is to hit 80% this week in football.
Goal for baseball is 60%.
Sleeper Pick of the Week: TEN over OAK. Don’t be shock, we all know everyone on the OAK hype train this year. Last year they were magical until Carr broke his leg. TEN is good on both side of the field. Lot’s of action on OAK.
Teaser of the Week:
2 team 7pts PIT -2 / NE -1
I don’t see PIT losing the game at all with a playoff caliber offense. Cleveland will improve this year, but they will not beat playoff teams right from the bat with a rookie. NE are Super Bowl champions with a even better offense than last year. They added a few new key defensive pieces to help carry them to back to back superbowls. KC, lost spencer ware and Maclin. That boggles my mind and makes me skeptical about their offense. NE will not have any Super Bowl hangover, that is usually the losing team.
College Pick of the Week:
Michigan -31 (I would buy points), Team total over. If I can get Cinn under 14.5 team total. I’m in.
-Wilton Speight will have a cleaner and better game from start to finish. This Michigan defense is way too nasty. 200 yards in the air and 250 yards on the ground. Michigan will force 3 turnovers that will lead to an easy 14-17 pts. I expect Mich to come out of the gate banging in the first half, so that may be a very good play as well. Let’s be honest, Michigan and Penn St last year should’ve had a chance to make playoffs last year… I think one of the two if not both will get a chance to make it. Lot’s of elite talent in the Big 10 conference. Michigan 42 Cincy 10.
Featured
Last week Recap: Last Week Website Write-Up Plays: 3-0
NE win
KC @ SEA under
Stanford vs Rice over 51
***Like I told you before, when I have write ups for my plays, it hits almost at a 80% winning clip. This will be the benefit that other cappers or touts won’t have. This week I have my top 2 plays for college which will include write-ups for free. Take advantage now and dominate football season.
Baseball Plays: 5-4
Baseball, we could’ve eliminated the KC Royals Team total, but truly thought they were going to step up on the 3rd game of the series. Horrible selection on my part. But nonetheless we are above 50% with one week left to make a serious run at the end of August.
5 Kapperking Principles of the Week before the big weekend.
-Patience. Wait for opportunities.
-Money Management, bet what you can afford, not bet yourself into a shithole in week 1.
-Quit crying about your losses, it happens.
-Quality > Quantity.
-Execute (Don’t be a bitch).
NCAAF – Let’s get it. My TOP 2 for the week.
Maryland vs Texas -16
-Maryland, first off, they suck. It’s an away game. They are starting a 2nd year QB with some mobility, but that don’t mean jack if you have a defense that can contain a runner.. Yes, they had some okay seasons in the past, but as of late, they get scrape like dog poo. NOW, the juicy J stuff. Texas, let me tell you one thing. They will end the year as a top 25 team. They have not been a top 25 team since colt mcgay was there. New head coach, Tom Herman. Great fucking coach. Recruited from Houston, and look how he transformed that program into a top 25 team. Now you put him in a Big 12 conference where there is a boat load of talented kids. These kids needed a head coach that can inspire and motivate them. They got one now. Returning on defense is 10 starters, very key to know this. QB Shane Buechele, is now a sophomore. As a freshmen, he was decent playing in a bad system under a bad coach with a bunch of drama. The dark cloud is clear, just like Demarcus Cousins. This kid can throw the ball, he about to throw white boy power TDs all day. What better way to begin a new season under a new regime under a legit coach than at HOME court. This is Texas coming out party.
Some added predictions: Maryland QB 1 turnover at least. Texas D 2 takeaways. QB Shane Buechele 240 yards 3 tds.
Maryland 20 Texas 45.
$550 to win $500.
Florida St vs Alabama.
-Two top 10 team face off in week one lol. Well that sucks, because it means one of ya’ll ain’t going undefeated for sure and life just got a lot harder for you to make the playoffs. I like both teams QB. They were pretty solid as freshmen showing talent and athletic ability play making styles. Francois main concern is, he is now with safety net Davin Cook. Also can his O-line protect him, last year that was a huge struggle. My guess is they address that problem by now. QB Hurts, boy can run on his feet. Lacks throwing arm last year. One year later, I think he may be potential Heisman of the year. Both team on the defensive side lost A LOT of star studded talent to the draft. Defense takes time to mold, and lots of depth in substitution packages. Game is on national TV late in the evening. I expect both team to throw some points on the board and it may very well come down to 1 touch down. I bet a lot of people are teasing bama, don’t be shock if they lose outright. No Lane Kiffin and not the same defense.
24 to 28, 28 to 27 type of game, somebody wins. Over 49.
$550 to win $500.
Looking at:
Georgia Southern vs Auburn -35.
Louisville vs Purdue over 67.
Vanderbilt vs Middle Tenn over 58.
3 Team 10pt Teaser.
-UNC -1 / Ok St. -7 / Texas -6.5
This season is going to be a hot season!— selective plays and bigger wagers. I am aiming for a 100k profit this year, with a bankroll of only 20k! I have approximately 10 months to make this dream a reality, so come follow the journey and see how an average Joe turns 20k into 100k. DON’T MISS OUT!
Last Week’s Recap: MLB: 8-3
-TB ml WIN (Blake Snell-P)
-SEA ml WIN
-ARI ml WIN
-SF ml WIN
-SD ml LOSE
-CHI -1.5 WIN
-MIN ml WIN
-NYY ml LOSE
-TB ml LOSE
-BOS ml WIN
-TB ml WIN (Blake Snell-P)
NFL Preseason: 1-2-1
-Vikings +4 LOSE
-2nd H Vikings WIN
-Panthers +3.5 LOSE
-2nd H Raiders PUSH
News Update:
Saturday will mark the official kickoff day for College Football! This week, I will be posting FREE plays (for football AND baseball) at least 15 minutes before each game begins so that you have time to place your bets. Remember to turn on your Instagram notifications to get the latest information as soon as it is posted!
Additionally, we have made some updates to our website and have included new features! Starting this season, we are going to provide you with graphs and charts to help you track our weekly/monthly progress. You will be able to see the number of plays that were made per week/month, and number of wins & losses.
Membership Reminder:
September will be the official start of the NFL, which means the start of my season too! To celebrate the return of football, we will be releasing monthly membership plans at dirt-cheap prices! Our monthlyprices are even cheaper than other capper’s weeklyprices! Our membership plan includes a Classic Plan for $125 and a Premier Plan for $200 and is good for an entire month! Please see details below.
The Classic Plan guarantees at least 3-7 plays per week for either NFL and College Football. ***As a bonus, all MLB picks will be included to those who signed up before August 31st Deadline.***. Picks will be sent via email at least 1 hour before the start of each game.
The Premier Plan includes all of the Classic Plan perks, in addition to: 2nd half plays and last-minute cap games. The picks included in the Classic Plan will be sent via email at least 1 hour prior to the start of the game, but Premier members will receive their additional picks (2nd half plays, last minute cap games) directly via text.
***Prices will vary as the season continues*** Lock in your rates now!
Our Policy:
We guarantee a 60% success rate per month (excludes baseball). If we do not meet our own standards, you will receive the next month’s membership FREE OF CHARGE!
Upcoming Plays & Analysis: For the upcoming NFL games, we want to take a closer look at all of the 2-0 ATS (at the spread) winners, as well as all of the 0-2 ATS losers. We want to find the best value once the spread is out. Perception is the key here. In preseason, a team could go cold and lose each one of their games or a team could go hot and cover all their games. However, the likelihood of a team continuing to win ATS is slim. Now, let’s take a look at which teams have value for us to invest in.
*Note: I will lock in my plays Thursday night/Friday noon.*
***Will update Preseason Analysis Thursday / Early Friday***
-We are busy analyzing baseball at the moment. It’s where the money is at.
Friday, 25th
NE (0-2) @ DET (2-0)
Better coach: NE
Offense: NE
Defense: NE
Value: 3rd preseason game is the only game starters play the most minutes in. I think we see NE bring the house and gets this win. DET has played 2 poor teams in preseason thus far, so I’m not impressed. This is looking like a tune-up game for Mr. Brady and Co. Spread -3 or better, I’m going with NE. Spread -5 or less, still lean NE, but smaller investment.
KC (1-1) @ SEA (2-0)
Better coach: Push
Offense: SEA
Defense: Push
Value: The real value here I believe lies within the over/under. Both teams have tremendous defense and likes running the ball and taking shots downfield here and there. Sacks and punts will help our case here a lot. One of SEA lineman tore his ACL. So their O-line will be a little shaky and no Jimmy Graham as well. KC air attack wont be like how it was without Maclin. Like the Under here.
Saturday, 26th
Stanford -31 vs Rice @ Australia, O/U – TBA
-What we know is: Stanford always beat Rice. But that does not necessarily mean they cover the spread all the time. -31 is a hefty price to pay for an overseas game where the competition could be closer than we expect. Last year score was 41-17. That was with a better offense and better defense. This year I think both the offense and defense regressed a little. On the other hand, Rice defense and offense still hasn’t improve. For Stanford, it should not be hard for them to drop 28+ on this Rice team. But can Rice put up 20 for us is the question. I say yes because Stanford defense without Solomon, is less scary and less pressure off the edges. Over seas game, one thing I like, is that they tend to have great shootouts to entertain for the viewers. None the less, I like this to be a fantastic game and less of a blowout. Lean the +31 and like the OVER here.
LAC (0-2) @ LAR (2-0)
Coach: Push (both new coaches)
Offense: Chargers
Defense: Push
Predicted Division Winners AFC
New England 13-3.
Pittsburgh 11-5.
Houston 9-7.
Oakland 10-6.
NFC
New York Giants 12-4. Vegas Investment Team Wins $1000
Green Bay 11-5. Vegas Investment Team Wins $1000
Tampa Bay 10-6. Vegas Investment Team Wins (Hot pick) $1000
Seattle 10-6.
Preseason Week 2 Play of the Week.
MIN @ SEA
Previous Game Info
MIN 17 vs BUF 10.
SEA 48 vs LAC 17.
Let’s get some facts straight, SEA on paper looks like the better team, for all we know they just handed an ass whooping to Chargers lol. They drop 40+ on their asses…but remember, don’t let that fat number deceive your eyes like them IG models fake tits. Perception is everything. MIN, if I remember correctly, they went undefeated last year in preseason. I believe they are one of the better teams to bet on in preseason. Last year they started hot in the season going for something like 5-0 thru week 5? Their defense looked monstrous but fell back down to earth and lack running game. Again this is preseason, take everything with a grain of salt. Preseason if meant for you to learn the depth of a team roster. 2nd Strings are very important because when a player gets tired or hurt, they come out and fill that role. The better the depth, the better the success rate of winning and longevity. How would you feel if you had $500 on TB then he gets hurt and you find out Blake Bortle is your replacement? You will probably feel like your money is burning in hell lol. Just an example.
Without further a do. I like the perception that SEA will not blow or drop 40 on this MIN team. I predict a close game by 1-3pts. MIN 20 to SEA 17. MIN 24 to SEA 20.
Purple Rain +4, and some mist of that moneyline. $210 to win $200.
Did I call it or did I call it this week? I told you I had a good feeling about week 3 and went 6-0 Sunday NFL. I did have my own college games but didn’t post. After a bad week 1 and slow week 2, we are finally out of the negatives and back into the profit side. My last post I gave you my predictions for both college and NFL and I believe it went 6-1 if I’m not mistaken. So make sure to read my predictions for my insights and leans.
Week 4 is here and I look forward to carrying the momentum and finishing off this month of September with a BANG!
WEEK 4 Lookahead
SF @ SEA -9. SF back to back 28 pts for a team that we don’t expect to score. To be honest, SF score some lucky points against CAR due to the fact that CAR gave up 4 turnovers…On another note, SEA has been VASTLY under performing score just 18pts in 2 games. SEA heads back home to face off a overrated SF team. YES, SEA do have injuries, a handicap QB, weak O-line, and problems. But they do have a stout defense which keeps them in the game. I foreshadow a statement game from SEA this coming Sunday. SEA -9, we should be wondering, WTF? How right? They not even good, so obviously there is something wrong about this high spread. I believe it’s because they about to get an ass whooping. SEA is known for dominating SF at SEA home. I wouldn’t be surprise if there is a blowout. SF no more than 14 points in this game. Christine Michaels breakout game 150 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown. 31-10 SEA wins.
ATL @ NO -3. ATL coming off a nice road win against OAK. OAK had no pressure on Matt Ryan and gave him all day to throw and shred the crap of their defense. NO with an 0-2 lost both close games. Drew Brees is still an elite QB and can still play lights out. I look forward to seeing Drew Brees shred this ATL defense on primetime at HOME and avoid an 0-3 start. Over the years, Drew Brees is known for beating ATL. The over is also worth a look but my bet is that it will be 54. 31-24 NO wins.
CLE @ MIA -10. Remember my last blog saying CLE is garbage, they are lol. Had a 20-2 lead after the first quarter and couldn’t score for the next 3 quarters lol. This week they have a Rookie QB on the road against a hungry MIA team looking for their first win. MIA offense finally got some rhythm last week and I expect them to carry it into this week at home. 38-13 MIA wins.
College Leans:
USC +3 @ Utah #23, I’m not a buyer of Utah, they simply aren’t the same team as the once were. USC has talent, their problem is turning that talent into outcome. Traditionally USC is known for beating Utah, look for them to upset the #23 rank team as underdogs.
Ok St +7.5 @ #16 Baylor, Baylor ranked #16 is a joke to me, they aren’t as dominant as before, they have a head coach who is a joke to me. Ok St. gave up lots of points, but they have a stingy defense that can cause turnovers and a explosive offense. I like the upset and the Moneyline is worth an investment.
#19 Florida +7.5 @ # 14 Tenn, Florida defense has been stellar, Tenn offense has been very poor and has not live up to the hype. I was a big fan of Tenn coming into the season but they have not dominate with the talent they have and an upset is lurking around. I’d take the dogs in this one with potential upset.
#7 Stanford -2.5 @ UCLA. This looks like a trap line, but you know what, Stanford has been one of the most balance team with one of the best player in the country. I don’t care what the line is, I’m investing money into them because they have not let down and has played great. Even if they lost, i rather know I put money into the best RB in the country.
(2-0) Teaser of the Week:
7pt tease: MIA -2.5 & GB -0.5 ($300)
I will post other plays and 2H plays as the games goes by.
Gonzaga -20 or less (Coach with experience, players with experience, offensively really good, pretty solid defense, home field)
Florida State -16 or less (Coach with experience, some players with experience, 12 man roster with depth, long and lengthy players which gives defensive advantage, also home crowd advantage)
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