“Never get too high on the highs and never feel too low on the lows.”
This phrase is a good principle to follow because it will help us control our emotions better throughout this long journey of sports gambling. When we win big, embrace it but also don’t get over yourself and lose focus on what matters. The long run. And when we have a losing day or week. Don’t be so down on yourself and waste so much energy dwelling. It happens, but there is always another day or week to profit again. We want to stay calm, collective, and focused.
So what have we learned from football over the past 6-7 weeks? Clemson and Alabama are the best college football teams thus far. Vastly more superior than all the other team. Even though Clemson lost, it was due to them not having a healthy QB and the coach putting in the wrong replacement. Don’t let that lost confuse you. Penn St IMO will make the playoff this year. They should’ve made it last year. Georgia looks good thus far, played some weak competition but they got the tools to succeed.
Top 4 College Teams
-Clemson
-Alabama
-Penn St
-Georgia (Ohio St will probably be #4).
Some undefeated teams that we will keep an eye on are, Wisconsin, Miami, and TCU, South Florida and UCF. We should keep an eye on these teams, because they will eventually get their first loss. We can make good money off these situation as long we pick the right spots. TCU, Wisconsin and Miami have a pretty high chance of losing because they play in a very competitive conference. Big 12, Big 10, ACC, pretty much Power 5 conferences.
NFL: after thinking about it, there is absolutely no team that is a clear #1 team. One day a team can look like super bowl contenders, the next time, pretenders. Seriously, I thought KC looked good but they are still missing a x factor on offense. Steelers are like ying and yang lol. Patriots should not even exist with a defense like that. Everyone has weaknesses. Sucks that Aaron Rodger went down, he made football fun to watch. Maybe Hundley can be Dak 2.0? AP looked good for Arizona but don’t fall in love just yet, he is useless in passing situation.
Statistic Breakdowns
Last month we profited about 60 units for the month of September. Right now for October we are at 19 units (We are a little less than that if we calculate loss juice in there). Let’s stay consistent and focused and win 60 units per month.
I know everyone love actions and betting on games. But we have to stay patient and attack the right ones. There are games I wished I bet and there are games I wished I didn’t but that’s part of the game.
Advantage Capping Methods
NE defense is very bad, I don’t think they will ever get better. Any team that plays them can score on them. Depending on the opponent and how they fair the last two weeks. Team total is a solid value play against a team like NE. This week we have ATL coming to town on a Sunday Night primetime game.
IND also have a very bad defense, 2nd worst next to NE. They are even more terrible on the road giving up 35pts to opponents lol. Team Total has value, again you must understand how the other team is doing and if there is motivation. TEN for example previous 2 games put up 14 & 10 points. This week they put up 29 points, not counting that last minute TD. Using advantages in situational opportunities can pay off. IND also is a terrible 2nd Half team. Allow many teams to catch up or at least cover the spread for 2nd H.
Be careful backing QBs or players returning from injury. It normally takes them a game back before feeling normal. Not sure the ATS for this theory, but its pretty high 70% I would say. But Mariota was one instance that it did not matter. Why? Maybe because the other team is garbage (IND). Good thing to watch out for in the future. Don’t get too excited when a QB is returning, always question how is he and is he 120%.
Free Personal Plays (Will be updated throughout the week, check daily).
1. Top NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins moneyline 10/22.
2. Top NFL Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 10/22.
Parlay both 1 unit to win 2.5 units.
3. NBA Pick: Toronto Raptors -12, 10/19 (They should dominate this dysfunctional Bulls team. Yes of course, any teams can come out and play lowly to their opponent level. Raptors give a B+ effort, they will cover. Bulls will probably be this year worst team if you really think about it. They lost all their good players. Now two of their more veteran players who contribute a good chunk of points are gone due to injury and suspension Portis and Mirotic. No Jimmy, no Rondo. Not sure if Zach Lavine is good to play yet. They will look like a bunch of D-leaguer on this opener night for Raptors. Should if Bulls play a solid first half, I’ll be gladly to re-invest in Raptors 2nd Half).
4. NBA Pick: Phoenix Suns ml, 10/20 (On Wednesday, they open the season up against the Blazers and had a historic blowout loss by 48 points. I mean that is inexcusable. They just could not hit any shots, or find rhythm with one another. Even though they are a young team, they are pretty solid chemistry wise compared to the Lakers. Lakers are athletic but they play a ton of 1 on 1 ball, they like to hold the ball very long. That’s why they drafted Lonzo Ball to help get the passing game going, but it will take time for him to mold in as he has a very big target on his back and everyone will want to light him up. This is a great situational bet on the Suns, it has tremendous value, motivation to right the ship, home court advantage and reasons to play hard today. LA on a back to back).
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