RECAP NEWS
Week 3: 6-0 NFL, Week 4: 5-1 CFB, 2-1 NFL, so currently on a 13-2 run, not too shabby I would say. Things are finally to pick up, my momentum and analysis of games are going well. The discipline is there and the execution been on point. So time to end this last week of September on a beautiful high note.
Last week predictions went 6-1, this week predictions went 2-5 LOL, but thats why they are predictions and not locks. NFL TEASERS been PERFECT (3-0) thus far and I will try to find a teaser of the week every week.
LESSONS of THE DAY
Folks, we all like winning, no one likes to lose. Plain and simple. But in order to win, we always have to stay true to ourselves and put ourselves in healthy capping situations with high % win chance.
- Discipline, meaning, stick to our guns, if our goal is to win $200 and we reach it, be happy. If our limit for the day is 200 and we lose it all. That is fine, learn to accept that and move on quickly and focus on a new day. Chasing has been the downfall to all gamblers. This is the biggest difference between a great gambler and a addictive idiotic gambler.
- Patience, meaning, waiting for an golden opportunity to invest some money that will give us the best chance to win $$$. A lot of people want action 24/7 so they will bet in the morning, noon, evening and just end up betting way too many games. Think about it this way. If you have a 50% chance of winning a game by selecting A or B, you bet $100 and you win, then you and if you lose you lose. Now if you bet 3 games, in order to come up positive you must win 2 out of 3 games. So that 50% game 1, 50% game 2, 50% game 3. So if you multiply 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5% chance of winning. You drastically reduced your chance of winning. That is why I promote low volume games but higher $$$ wagers. why split $300 into 3 $100 games with 12.5% win chance when you can bet 1 game for $300 with 50% chance of winning. THAT IS MATH folks. If you truly want to win a couple thousand at the end of the season then you will need to make these adjustments to help yourself become successful CONSISTENTLY.
So guys, if you truly want to have free money at the end of the season, then you gotta be true to yourself and stick with the program. I will be starting a texting group program so that folks can get my picks as soon as I get them. Sometimes I have a locked in play as early as 3 days or as late as the final minute before gametime because I use every minute if I need to, in order to analyze the game the best I can before putting money down. SO STAY TUNED.
Charity
This year, I want to start a charity fund drive for 1 of the 2 options. Options 1 is a Thanksgiving drive because I love to help feed the hungry and this is IMO the most meaningful holiday of all. Option 2 is raising money for XMAS so I can buy less fortunate kids presents and hopefully getting something from their wish list.
Goal is to raises $1000 for Thanksgiving ( got about 2 months to do that). If I raise $1500 or more in 2 months, then I will spend it on Option 2 and buy gifts for 5+ kids for XMAS.
Either way, these donation will go to a good cause. I win money on a weekly basis, i have more than I need so I help others when I can. I want to promote this awareness where we should help one another whenever we can and hopefully create a better world for all. Not everyone is blessed with the things other have. So its important to not forget about them.
Week 5 Lookahead Baby!!!
(3-0) NFL Teaser of the Week:
6.5/ 7 pt tease:
(0-0) NCAAF Teaser of the Week:
6.5/ 7 pt tease: Clemson +8.5 / USC -2.5 ($300)
Play #1: IND vs JAC over 47 ($400)
This game is being played in London, so I expect a shootout for the fans to watch. JAC has been very disappointing offensively (Scoring 23, 14, 17 their last 3 games). I look forward to JAC having an offensive show in this matchup (JAC will score 28-35 pts). IND finally got their win #1, TY finally came to play. IND can put up points, their defense is suspect I can see Luck putting 24-31 pts in this game. I can see JAC win this one though so 34-31 JAC win.
Play #2: OAK vs BAL over 44.5 ($400)
2-1 Raiders vs a 3-0 Ravens team. Interesting matchup. First off, Ravens 3-0 is pretty darn surprising, but they did play just CLE, JAC, but a quality win vs BUF. So to me, I’m not sure if they are legit, I know their defense is not top 10 quality, but in terms of their QB, he is top 10 and can get them the wins. Raiders on the other hand, got 2 road wins, lost at home in a battle with ATL. Their defense is horrible, I expected better, but their offense and head coach play calling is what got them to 2-1. I really do believe Raiders make it into playoffs this year with a 10-6 record. If so, they need a quality win and beat the Ravens will do just that and give them a 3-1 start to the season. I expect a classic shootout from both these teams, from start to finish. I like Raiders to win 35-34. Lean OAK +3.5 as well. They have done very well as underdogs (2-0 this season before the line went to favorite vs TEN).
Play #3: NO vs SD over 53.5 (PENDING)
NO absolutely trash defense, nothing at all lol. But Brees 0-3 will do his best to win games and his offense still very decent. SD should have no problem moving the ball against NO. Melvin Gordon should have a fantastic day running and catching the ball. SD defense is very suspect, they did play very well against IND and broke down in the end. The over is very close. My wager on this game will be entirely dependent on how the morning / Saturday games go. Prediction: 28-25 somebody win. Would defintely try to get the line 52.5.
Play #4: USC TT over # ($100)
Arizona St defense is absolutely garbage trash dumpster. Cal put 41 on them with ease and as a matter of fact should have won as well. USC finally put the better QB in that is more mobile, better arm, better accuracy. USC offense will have a field day. USC defense has been playing tough opponents, but should have a better and easier time against Arizona St offense. USC wins 42-24.
Play #5: Clemson +2 ($200)
This is where Lamar Jackson makes mistakes, plays against a real defense, at a crazy home field called Death Valley. People all of a sudden forgot about Clemson simply because they haven’t been flashy. But its due. Its all about timing and the Tigers are ready to pounce on these small cardinals.
Play #6: Maryland -10 ($300)
MORE PLAYS TO COME…will be posted either here, if game day then will be posted on IG.
***Will be last free week of plays. I will start a donation service, to raise money for charity.***
Fantasy Breakout Performance Players for Week 4 NFL
QB: Blake Bortles (300yds, 3 touchdowns)
QB: Joe Flacco (300yds, 3 touchdowns)
RB: Melvin Gordon (130 scrimmage yds, 1 touchdown)
WR: Steve Smith Sr (100 yds, 1 touchdown)
WR: Travis Benjamin (100 yds, 1 touchdown)
WR: Philip Dorsett (100 yds)
Sleeper DEF: CIN & PIT