Welcome back to Blog 5. Wasn’t planning to make a blog 5 but this weekend will be a special one since it will include an overall analysis of ALL sports: MLB, NCAAF and NFL.

But first we need to go through our weekend outcomes so that we can learn a thing or two about our wins and losses to better improve our future picks.

MLB Weekend Summary: We went a perfect 4-0 on client MLB plays (1-0 Sat, 2-0 Sun, 1-0 Mon). As for the blog future series picks we went 6-8 which isn’t surprising as I did pick all the premier matchups for the weekend. What I am surprise is that Arizona only won 1 game of the 4 and that the Padres won 2 games and that the Whitesox are still on fire…but if there is one thing we learn, it is that Arizona offense is not that good…besides there top 4 hitters in the lineup, the others suck…pitching is decents, but their main reliever Archie Bradley and closer Boxburger sucks and will blow some if not lots of games. I know there Redsox hasn’t look amazing the last week or so but trust me they are good. They are just slumping with poor pitching and injuries. But they have the best offense and it can ignite at anytime. Never count them out. Dodgers offense is vastly overrated, I think it best to play them when they are against poor pitching teams which will allow their offense to shine. Have not seen them make ACE pitchers look bad, only Cubs have done that. Look for the Rockies to get hot in their next 10 games at home in September, they been excellent at home and especially against their division rivals.

CFB Weekend Summary: It was an awful putrid weekend in football to say the least. We never learn our lesson, should probably sit back and watch each team to get a feel for how they play. But its okay, part of the learning process, now with our losses we can learn how that team performed. We went a garbage 3-9 in CFB week 1. So lets breakdown some of our main losses. Michigan, defense is still very good, but offense is still something to be desire. QB may need a few more games to break in, more maybe need a weaker opponent to bash on to see how good they are. They will need their RBs and WRs to step up. Their offense SHOULD be an upgrade from last year though. Wisconsin, a few points shy from getting us the cover. Run game should be fine, but having some trouble in the passing game. Maybe they are just rusty. They will get back one WR from suspension so that should help. Houston started slow as hell and allowed Rice to pour in 20 points in the first half before shutting them down the 2H. They are led by Art Brile Offense, which is the ex-coach of Baylor back when RG3 used to play. So expect them to light it up. They play Arizona next and Houston will be back home.

MLB Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1
Blog#3: 9-3
Blog#4: 6-8

CFB Picks Recap:
Week 1: 3-9

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MLB Picks

***Keep in mind, we are predicting the whole outcome before the series is even played.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies, 3 game series.

***Notes: No Kenley Jansen as a closer for Dodgers. Higher attitude and humidity will give hitters an advantage over pitching. Rockies bullpen has been shaky as of late, allowing SD Padres and SF Giants to put up some runs.

GM1: Kershaw vs Gray (Total = 9) OVER
-About 4-6 Rockies hitters with great hitting % against Kershaw.
-Kershaw has pitched into the 6th inning in his last 10 starts giving up 4 at most in 6 innings.
-Gray has average 6 innings as well. His shortest inning is 4 against the SF Giants in which he allowed 5 runs. 5 runs is the most he’s given in his 10 game stretch.
GM2: Buehler vs Freeland (I would chose this one to be the duel of the pitchers.)
GM3: Wood vs Anderson OVER (Pitching Change so scratch).
-Lots of Rockies hitter with great hitting % against Wood.

Breakdown: Both teams got hitters that can hit. I’m expecting a shootout in this series. I can almost sense at least 2 of 3 will go over. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot and first place in their division. Totals are normally set at least at 10 in games that are placed in Colorado. So anything lower is consider pretty low for example a 9 is equivalent to a 7 in a different stadium. Probably wont see anything lower than 9 at Coors field. Both team has suspect bullpens to definitely consider.

Stats from games played in Colorado between these two teams. Here is the compile totals (1st 5/FG): 11/19, 7/16, 10/17, 2/13, 7/9, 2/5, and 2/7.

So we have 4 games out of 7 going above 11.
5 games out 7 reaching a minimum of 9.
Do not recall Kershaw pitching any of these games though. Not that he scares anyone.

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CFB Picks

1H Houston Cougars -2

Why? Houston Cougars are led by offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. Who is that? He’s the son that ran the offense for Baylor back when they were good like the RG3 era. He also spent a season at FAU running that offense with Lane Kiffin, that’s why their offense was so good last year and not so much this year. They got experience in the QB, stud WR/RBs and a Top 3 pick DE. They started very slow last week against a garbage RICE team, absolutely garbage start. But they clean things up and throttle RICE in the 2H. They put up 300 passing yards and 200 rushing. Now they come home to open their homecoming game against Arizona. Arizona is now run by head coach Kevin Sumlin who used to coach Texas AM. He started the season with 0-1 with the loss coming from a BYU team (IMO not a very good team, but pretty decent defense). BYU was able to contain that offense before scoring 3 straight touchdowns against Arizona. Arizona has always had problems defensively that’s why they have to go on shootout games with teams. Rumor has it that Arizona conditioning is not on par this season so that may have some truth to it. Tate was a superstar last year, but now people have video tapes on him and how he play. No surprises if he has a down year. I expect HOU to come out strong in the 1H and put pressure on Arizona early. If you make Arizona QB Tate play catch up with his arm, then you are in good position to win the game.

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NFL Picks

7pt TEASER: BAL -0.5 & LAR +3

-Why Baltimore Ravens? First, they got more veterans and experience. They got home field advantage and a clutch kicker in Justin Tucker. They also got a great coach who makes great calls and adjustments. Buffalo, is starting Nate Peterman (he threw 5 INT in one game last year lol). I’m sure Peterman will be better, but he does have a bad O-line. Not sure what the McCoy situation is. Offensively, they should be a little worst compared to when they had Tyrod Taylor who can make plays with his feet. Buffalo defense should still be solid. I expect Baltimore to pull out the victory with the home opener.

-Why Los Angeles Rams? They have great coach who makes great calls. Bunch of veteran players with playoff experience. Top 5 RB. Dynamic offense. But the main course: a very nasty defense put together this off season. This may be the dream defense that Wade Philips needs. Remember Wade Philips put together that #1 Denver defense a few season ago and it was lights out. You got Donald and Suh on the D-line, and Talib and Peters on the corners. My goodness. Raiders, new coach debut, normally and what I’ve been seeing in college, new head coachses debut has not look good so far for football. It will take time for things to gel together. Raiders don’t have much going on except maybe for offense. They gave away their #1 defensive player. They were TRASH last year on defense and now you give away your one guy who can put pressure on defense. Opponents should be able to score at will against this team…TOP 5 worst defense is my prediction.

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Conclusion: I expect a easy 3-1 outcome if not a perfect sweep between these 4 plays. These are the most confident plays. Normally we like to release them the day of so we can get more additional information. But these are our vision and we will see our vision through with success.

Cheers and have a wonderful week!
-KapperKing1

Welcome back everyone to Blog #4 of our weekend MLB analysis.

LAST WEEKEND WAS AMAZING! We went 17-5 overall on our bets and 9-3 overall on our weekend MLB analysis. Very profitable heading into football season. We will still put most of our emphasis on MLB while investing about 30% into college football this weekend.

*****Keep in mind, this is all forecast outcomes before the series even start. We are predicting each outcome for each game of the weekend series ahead.

Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1
Blog#3: 9-3

Blog #3 Summary: Last weekend was another success to the book. We sweep the LAD and OAK series for 6-0 while going 3-3 with the PHI and CHC game. PHI was a big time moose imo, took them game 3 to show up, looks like the got bullpen problem. So far we are able to get a good read and forecast for these games so far for 3 weekend straight and we will be going for our 4th, but this time it will be harder because we are picking some playoff contention series to work with so definitely follow cautiously. Make sure to read each breakdown/conclusion as some games we will focus more specifically on the totals of the series rather than the games of matchup.

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Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox, 4 Game Series

GM1: Porcello vs Golito
GM2: Eovaldi vs Kopech (Most likely POUNDER game)
GM3: Rodriguez vs Rodon
GM4: Johnson vs Shields

Breakdown: First off Chicago has had a great run the last 10 game or so prior to this series. Boston on the other hand come into this series with 2 losses against CLE and 3 losses to TB. Losing is necessary in order to win in the post season because they need to learn to adapt adjust and mentally absorb a loss to get better. Theres only 30 games left (1 month left) so it is crunch time and turn up the engine mode for the Red Sox. I expect Red Sox to light it up and take 3-1 minimum of 4 games. White sox bullpen not very good, so expect some good team total over bets. Anything 4.5/5 is good to bet. I will have lots of wager on them in this series.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics, 4 Game Series

GM1: LeBlanc vs Montas
GM2: Leake vs Fiers (Over as well).
GM3: Paxton vs Anderson
GM4: Hernandez vs Jackson

Breakdown: Two teams that can compete. Both teams have the offense to compete. But the bullpen edge goes to OAK for sure.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers, 4 Game Series

GM1: Robbie Ray vs Rich Hill (Over 7.5)
GM2: Greinke vs Ryu
GM3: Corbin vs Kershaw
GM4: Buchholz vs Buehler

Breakdown: Arizona and LA Dodgers always have a pretty fun matchup as they both can put runs on each other. Unlike SD Padres, who only put up 1-4-3 runs respectively against the dodgers, I know the Diamondbacks can put up 4 per game on the Dodgers pitching staff. Likewise for Diamondbacks pitching, I have watch them this season and they too are nothing to fear. Should be some nice scoring games in this series, predicting 3 of 4 games to hit the over. As long as totals stay within the 8 range, it is a worthy investment. Arizona is coming into this series losing 4/5 of the last 7/8 games, so they are in quite a slump especially offensively. Dodgers on the other hand come into this series winning the last 4/5 games in a row, so they got good mojo especially with their offense.

Conclusion: We will focus our majority of money on investing on the total for these games, as I feel like this is where the advantage is for us.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres, 4 Game Series

GM1: Marquez vs Lauer
GM2: Senzatela vs Kennedy
GM3: Gray vs Erlin
GM4: Freeland vs Nix

Breakdown: Wow, the PADRES sweep the Wild Card contending Mariners, now that’s something. But let’s be real, SD does show out occasionally just like how they whooped on MIL and CHC…But they can also be very bad as well. Mariners is just so anemic, one day they good one day they bad. But to analyze them right now, Mariners have poor pitching and hot/cold batting. Based on this line up from SD, pretty much all of the weaker pitchers are in line for this weekend matchup. So with that said, I expect the Rockies to take 3-1 in this series.

Welcome back everyone to Blog #3 of our weekend MLB analysis.

Keep in mind, this is all forecast outcomes before the series even start. We are predicting each outcome for each game of the weekend series ahead.

Recap:
Blog #1: 12-2
Blog #2: 5-1

Blog #2:
Man, we killed that ARI vs SD game AGAIN!!! Maybe SD just a easy team to read haha. But went with ARI for 3 games and the one game that we chose SD (game 3) it hit and that was nice +150 dog hitter thanks to the fact that since they got beat easily first two games it inflated the dog. We went 4-0 here.

As for the MIL vs STL game. We went 1-1, we went with MIL rookie game 1 and they got taken care of easily as Brewers had no defense what so ever and a dead offense. Game 2 we pass as it was a coin flip in my opinion. Game 3 we went with MIL again and luckily they squeaked out a win by the hair of their chinny chin chin. We went 1-1 here.

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***POUNDER GAME***
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers, 3 Game Series

GM1: Richards vs Hill
GM2: Kennedy vs Kershaw
GM3: Erlin vs Wood

Breakdown: Look, the Dodgers need a nice series sweep, what better team than the garbage SD Padres. If they want to get closer to a playoff berth they will need to beat these guys. So prediction is Dodgers win 2-1 minimum with an expectation of 3-0 sweep. SD pitching is nothing to be scare of and they are one of the weaker offensive teams. I expect LA Dodgers to score like 5 runs each game kind of like how the Arizona Diamonbacks did against these Padres. Dodgers offensive arsenal should show up in this series.

Conclusion: I say Dodgers make a sweep, with two of the wins covering the -1.5 RL and maybe one game being a 1 run win. Dodgers will average 5-6 runs per game. The over on these games can be a potential play as well as LA bullpen is very bad at the moment so keep an eye out on that. As long as team total is 5 or less, its a play.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs, 4 Game Series

GM1: DeSclafani vs Hamels
GM2: Harvey vs Mills (Rookie/No namer)
GM3: Castillo vs Quintana
GM4: Bailey vs Hendricks

Breakdown: I also look forward to the Cubs to have an offensive show out in this series as well. Will look forward to barreling on them team totals in this series as well as the Dodgers.

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins, 4 Game Series

GM1: Cahill vs Stewart (Rookie)
GM2: Manaea vs Odorizzi
GM3: Fiers vs Gonsalves (Rookie)
GM4: Anderson vs Berrios

Breakdown: I really don’t see why the OAK don’t score a bunch on these guys, especially like 2 rookies on deck. The only thing I can see affecting the As players are the weather condition. A’s offense should be able to feast on pretty much all of these pitchers.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Bluejays, 3 Game Series

GM1: Arrieta vs Borucki (Rookie)
GM2: Pivetta vs Sanchez
GM3: Velasquez vs Estrada

Breakdown: Toronto just swept the MIGHTY Orioles…wow, sike, not impressive at all. The Phillies just got themselves a huge win against the nationals. Now they get to face some mediocre BJs. This is a huge upgrade in pitching that TOR will be facing, but if their bats work it works. I don’t expect Phillies to sweep the Bluejays, but if they want to contend for a playoff berth, they will need to win 2-1 which is exactly what I’m predicting.

Conclusion: We will ride them all 3 games and hope to go 2-1 at the very minimum.

Last time we broke down some game analysis and was pretty damn on point. Only thing was, we didn’t put our money where our mouth (analysis) is.

BOS 4-0, covered all RLs
SEA 4-0, cover all + moneyline (+130, +200, +200, +190)
SD 3-0, covered all moneyline
WAS 1-2, Only got Tanner Roark ml. They choked game 3 for walk off grand slam.

We predicted Boston to win at least 3 of 4 games against the Baltimore Orioles. The outcome was that they won all 4 games and covered all of the RL / ml as well. They averaged like 5.5/6 points per game as well, so they probably hit like 3 team total over 5.

The other game we predicted well, was Seattle, I knew they would take 2 games from Houston, but DAMN they swept them like easy peasy. Seattle were huge +200 underdogs in each match except game 1. They won all 4 just like Boston. Great money make on both these series but yet we did not capitalize.

We also correctly hit each of the games in the SD vs PHI match up. We predicted 3 for 3, 100%. Though the offense tighten up and they did not average 4 points per game anymore, they did well with their pitching staff to hold down the Phillies. We knew Aaron Nola is to legit, thus we rode them to beat the Padres.

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NOW…let’s break down a few series…BUT… this time we put our money where our mouth is!

ARI vs SD, 4 game series.
GM1: Claybol vs Nix (Rookie)
-CASHED IN the 1st 5 ml with ARI.
GM2: Ray vs Lucchesi (Like the over in this game)
GM3: Godley vs Richards
GM4: Grienke vs Kennedy (Rookie)

This is what we think. Arizona takes 3-1 out of this 4 games series minimum. SD is one of the worst if not THE worst home baseball teams this year. SD is 22-41 at home. Arizona this year alone is leading 8 games to 3 against SD thus far. SD is very anemic on offense. They traded away a lot of power pitching staff away. So pretty much they have no offense and below average pitching. The trick is predict which game SD has the best chance to win, OR we can just take Arizona each game and at this rate we will cash 3 out of 4.

Conclusion: Arizona takes 3 out of 4 games at least. And if I had to pick a game that SD can win, it will be Richards against Godley solely based on the a gut feeling that since Godley had 3 solid starts, he’s due to lose one. If Ray win like how we predict them to today, it would set up SD at a high ml dog play on Saturday…just something to note.

ONE MORE GAME!

MIL vs STL, 3 game series.
GM1: Peralta (Rookie) vs Flaherty (Rookie)
GM2: Miley vs Mikolas
GM3: Anderson vs Gant

So what do we know, STL won 7 in a row before losing to Nationals last night. They were playing fantastic baseball, but yesterday they played some poor defense and got taken advantage of. Milwaukee, they got POWER, they can hit the long ball, they got a stingy bull pen, but for some reason they were in a funk and just couldn’t win series. 1-2 against SD, 1-2 against ATL, 1-1 against the Cubs. So overall they won 3 and loss 5 on their last 7 games. Brewers can score, but they need to put it together and their pitching needs to keep it clean for 6 solid innings if possible. Baseball is all about timing. Everything has to connect. What I mean is, when your pitcher is doing good, HOOK HIM UP WITH SOME RUN SUPPORT. When you got runner in scoring position, CAPITALIZE, then let the bullpen come in and lock the game up. This goes for ALL teams.

Brewers currently lead 7 games to 6 against the Cardinals. So far it is a tight battle between the two. Brewers take 2-1 in this series as they come back to life for the wild card. Don’t get it twisted, nationals were on the tail of beating Cardinals in a few games if not for their faulty bullpen.

Sup everyone, just got done with a huge project for the month of July, so now I fully have the time to put into more of sports capping, maybe that’s why my August result has been better? Haha who knows. Sports capping is all about trends, patterns, situational and emotional stages, data statistics and MOST IMPORTANTLY… a little luck as well.

As far as MLB, this is actually my first full season, so I have to be a little happy with how things gone so far. I think the major mistake in this year MLB capping is too much money/picks invested in the team totals and game totals. Spreads and moneyline bets at least we have the chance to win without depending on a certain amount of points being scored or not scored. But from time to time, it is easy for me to predict when a team will score or not specially with the top 5 offenses or currently hot batting teams.

Now on to some analysis and predictions.

Games we will emphasize on this weekend:

PHI @ SD, 3 Games Series
-GM 1: EFFIN 3.61 vs SD Rookie 0.00
PHI -135 ml
-GM 2: NOLA 2.37 vs Lockett 9.28
PHI -250 ml (my guess, lines not out)
-GM 3: ARRIETA 3.11 vs LUCCHESI 3.70
PHI -140 ml (my guess)

At first just by instincts and what I see from both teams. SD has a lot of momentum mojo right now. They took 2 of 4 from Cubs and 2 of 3 from the Brewers. That is 4 of 7 from playoff contenders which is quite impressive. Also, SD batting has scored 4+ in each of their last 7 games, so yes, their bats are HOT. Because of their momentum and wild gut prediction, my first guess was that SD could potentially sweep the Phillies before looking at all the pitching matchups. But I guess the only concern with that is NOLA is playing in this series, so perhaps they will win 2 of 3 instead but who knows… Baseball is not always about pitching matchups. Sometimes, when the bats are working and are hot, it doesn’t matter what is thrown. Onto PHI. PHI is one team that no one really predicted to developed so quickly after a terrible year last year. But now, they are sitting in a playoff seat pending ATL and WAS who are right behind their alley. PHI is a pretty solid team, but like all teams, some time, your bats aren’t there. They got blanked last time out against Arizona. They scored 2pts, 5pts, and 0pts averaging about 2.3 per game. One thing about this team, that people need to know is that they have one of the worst defense of baseball. If that holds true vs a hot batting team like SD. SD will be looking good.

Conclusion: SD take the series 2-1. Again these are just wild predictions based on momentum, stats, and some guessing.

WAS @ CHC, 3 Games Series
-GM1: Hellickson vs Hendricks
CHC ml -145
-GM2: Roark vs Lester
CHC ml -160 (my guess, lines not out)
-GM3: Scherzer vs Hamels
WAS ml -200 (my guess, lines not out)

WAS currently in 3rd place in their division, they have lots of ground to cover if they want to make a push for playoffs or wildcard. To do that, it starts with winning. They haven’t had any sweeps yet, so one here would do wonder and position them very well. They need sweeps with about 40 games left to go. They have talent, just need to execute it. Bryce Harpers has been lights out since All-stars, so it’s a big plus to have him back in the lineup. Cubs have played against mediocre competition so far. 7 games vs KC and SD whom are under 50 wins, so that’s not saying a lot. The Cubs didn’t sweep any of the series so that’s disappointing. The Cubs, one thing we learn is very inconsistent. One day they on, one day they off. They haven’t had a class 7 game win streak like Yankees, Astros, Redsox or even Athletics. They just came off a brutal beating by KC 9-0 romper lol. My gut tells me Washington takes this series with at least 2-1 win. Very good chance they sweep if Lester has another snooze fest again.

Conclusion: Washington takes 3-0 / 2-1 series win. Inching their way back into playoff talks.

SEA vs HOU, 4 Game Series
-I won’t break down this game like the previous two because Seattle has won 1 game already. But before the series started, I had a feeling that Seattle will make some ground by taking at least 2 games from HOU. HOU is in a big hole with injuries. They got lucky and took 2 Wins from a pathetic SF bullpen. SEA look really weak with their pitching, but they do have the offense to keep them in the game and a closer to seal the deal.
-Since I won’t make predictions here, I will definitely be on the radar to bet on Seattle again before the weekend is over.

BOS vs BAL, 4 Game Series
-Look, Baltimore is really bad, perhaps the worst pitching staff in MLB. They have some hitters but they are inconsistent and never dependable. Boston, best team in MLB, simply said, with that said, I do hope they DONT break that 116 game win season, because that’s never a good sign, for example, Golden State Warriors setting the regular season wins then losing championship. Patriots 17-0 Season then losing to Giants in Super Bowl.
-Anyways, Boston will take AT LEAST 3 games of 4 here. They will probably be around -200 moneyline price range for the whole game, so including them in parlays will probably be the best bet unless you like paying high juice favorites. I will look for some situations to back them at the -1.5 RL spreads this weekend.

 

UPDATED AS OF 6/18/18 2:20 PM PST

New York Yankees

When they lose a game by 4 or more, they have a very high bounce back the very next game. 100% in 2018.

Yankees (6-0) after losses of 4+ in points differential in 2018

Yankees have not loss more than 2 consecutive games in a row.

San Diego Padres

When they win 3 games in a row, very high chance around 87% they lose the very next game.

Padres are (3-21) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons

Atlanta Braves

Pretty solid bounce back games after a loss with about 75%

Braves are (22-8) in their last 28 games following a loss

Houston Astros

As of 2018, the Astros are 2-0 after losing 3 consecutive games in a row. 100%.

Astros are (3-0) in their last 3 games following 3 consecutive losses.

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Solid bounce back teams:

Seattle Mariners

Chicago Cubs

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FIRST 5 INNINGS Data:

Best Pitchers to bet First 5 Moneyline on:

COL: Bettis (11-1-1)

ARI: Corbin (7-1-5)

TB: Snell (10-3-1)

NYM: deGrom (8-1-4)

SD: Ross (8-3-2)

HOU: Verlander (10-1-3)

NYY: Tanaka (9-2-1)

Worst Pitchers to bet First 5 Moneyline on:

CIN: Bailey (1-10-1)

TOR: Garcia (2-8-1)

CIN: Romano (1-7-5)

HOU: Keuchel (3-8-3)

TEX: Moore (2-8-2)

BAL: Cobb (2-8-1)

BAL: Cashner (3-8-2)

CWS: Giolito (3-8-1)

CHC: Hendricks (3-7-3)

Highest Scoring First 5 Teams                    Lowest Scoring First 5 Teams

CLE 3.22                                                          BAL 1.89
NYY 3.16                                                         NYM 2.0
COL 3.09                                                         MIA 2.05
BOS 3.05                                                          SD 2.15
ATL 2.71                                                         TEX 2.24
SF 2.58                                                            MIN 2.24
CHC 2.58                                                        TB 2.3
STL 2.57                                                         PHI 2.32
HOU 2.57                                                       PIT 2.32
ARI 2.53                                                         TOR 2.34

Here are some of my thoughts on some matchups that I like. All official locked plays will be posted on my Instagram story / post and of course on my free VIP group list.

Yesterday we went 2-1 with our locked in plays.
Atlanta Braves took home a W for us which was our Play of the Day.
SF Giants took a beating but that was expected. L
Houston Rocket straight up win helped seal our night in profit. W.

POD: Play of the day.
Arizona Diamondbacks ml +105

Explanations and thoughts:

• Last post, we talked about how the Diamondbacks are struggling and they are a situational play at this point. Clearly they loss a ton of games. That is why we sat out of the play to spectate the outcome which could help lead us to a play for today.
• Diamondbacks definitely showed signs of battle against the Brewers. It’s hard to trust a team on a slump. But that is why in the world of capping, there are “Situational Spots” & “Due Theory”.
• This is a great spot to back them and take them as a dog with no juice. We will be on this play for 2-4 units.

FOD: Favorite of the day.
Chicago Cubs ml -170

Explanations and thoughts:

• The Indians got things rolling yesterday and it was a great win for them. But I can’t fully respect because it was against Chatwood who is top 5 in walks and as you can see he walked like 5 or more batters. They definitely took advantage and smoked him.
• Indians starter is playing his second major league start of the season. He had a decent first start, but now he is on the road and against a team that just got blown out.
• Stats: Lester is (20-2) in home night games. Lester is (8-3) against Cleveland with an ERA of 3. Cleveland is (1-10) in their last 11 games following a win. Let’s not forget Cleveland still has one of the most garbage bullpen.

MORE TO COME MAYBE…check hourly for updates.

 

 

POD: Play of the day.
Atlanta Braves ml +110

Explanations and thoughts:

• Just going to state facts. Braves and McCarthy owns the Phillies 3-0 Wins with games going 15-2, 7-3, 10-1 in that span. He averaged 5.1 innings per game while giving up about 1.5 runs per game. Velasquez on the other hand have not fair so well against the Braves. Velasquez average 4 innings per game against the Braves while giving up about 5 runs per game against them. Pretty much McCarthy and the Braves OWNS Velasquez and the Phillies in this matchup. Just facts.
• The Braves are also (13-4) after a loss this season.
• No I’m not chasing after yesterday loss. Playing it solely based on evidence of findings which leads to an advantage for the Braves.

DOD: Dog of the day.
Arizona Diamondbacks ml +135

Explanations and thoughts:

• They have clearly loss a ton of games over the last 13 games or so. Out of the 13 games, they only won like 1. Public will be riding the Brewers, no one will be putting any money on the Diamondbacks at this point. In conclusion, this is the exact spot to take the diamondbacks at dog value.
• Pretty much there are spots where we can apply the “Due Theory” like the over for Boston over 205 last night. Nothing huge to bet on, but there is value for this spot.
• Let’s say they don’t win. You can apply the “Chase Theory” and double up your bet on them the next game (Wednesday @ +112 ML).

FOD: Favorite of the day.
Washington Nationals -175

Explanations and thoughts:

• After getting swept by the Dodgers, they are awake and well. Bats were steaming hot. You get a Padres team who overachieved (3-1) against the Pitts Pirates. I can see the Nationals sweeping if not taking at least 2 of the first 3 games.
• Add it to a Parlay if you don’t like the high juiced line.

TOD: Total of the day.
SEA vs OAK over 8.5

Explanations and thoughts:

• Both team been batting well especially the As. Nice breeze to help boost hitters in this game and improve home run chances.

SLEEPER of the night?!
San Francisco Giants ml +230 / +1.5 RL

Explanations and thoughts:

• Gut feeling more than anything. San Francisco bats are steaming up the last two games. Maybe it will carry into tonight’s game and give an upset. +230 ML is a lot. Cole been pitching lights out, but it only takes a couple hits to change that.

 

January 13 & 14, 2018.

Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh -7.5 / 41

Let me tell you one thing. This Jaguars defense is one of the best in the last 2 decades. Make no mistake about that. If you like Denver defense back when Manning was playing, you’ll like this defense more, because their LB core can actually cover guys. Giving this vaulted defense 7.5 points is insane. But I guess the counter to this is Blake Bortle, it always come down to Bortles. It’s funny that no one gives him respect, but telling you, if he’s on his A game, this team will beat anybody. Same can be said about Big Ben, he will always have his classic 3 pick game every 5 games. You rattle this guy, he will melt like butter. Advantage on defense is greatly for the JAX. Offense will go in favor for PIT obviously. I suggest that Brown don’t play this game, if they do make it to the conference championship game. They will need him in that game. Also, he will not be 100%, he will be more of a reliability if he does play.

Tennessee vs New England -13 / 48

What a comeback victory for TEN. But you know what, I can’t give them that much credit because KC has been bad all year and they are known for choking. I understand Kelce did not play the 2H, but cmon, 0 points? 19 unanswered from TEN, KC barely scrape up 100 yards in the 2nd Half after putting up nearly 300 in the first half. TEN now gets +13 points against the Patriots, I bet dog lovers are salivating the 13 points. Make no mistake 13 points is a lot, but is that enough versus a top notch team like the patriots? Patriots is led by arguably the best QB/Coach tandem in NFL history. They had extra week to prepare and study film on the Titans. From the film I saw, in the first half, Tyreek Hill speed was too much for Titans defense. Travis Kelce ate them alive as well and it opened up holes for Kareem Hunt. When you have 2 players that demands double team, it makes it very hard for the defense to play well. Double team opens up the run game. KC was on fire pretty much the first half. So let’s look at Patriots: they have Brandon Cooks, their speedster and deep threat. Gronk their TE. These two will demand double team from a weak Titans secondary. Let’s not forget Chris Hogan, Amendola, and surprise surprise, Dion Lewis baby. The passing attack is going to be deadly come this weekend. 300 yards in the air is going to happen and it will open up the run game which will produce 100 yards on the ground. Make no mistake, NE coaching staff been there and done that, they simply know how to win. Don’t forget, you have the Goat QB and Goat Coach. NE simply needs to control TEN run game, and let their star paid Corners lock up TEN WR. NE linebacker and pass rush isn’t the same as before, but their secondary is improved. So they can focus a little more on the middle coverages and play man outside. TEN on the road again, but this time won’t be so lucky.

New Orleans vs Minnesota -4 / 46

What I know: Winner of this game will most likely go on to the Super Bowl.

Atlanta vs Philly +3 / 40

What I know: Matt Ryan and the falcons are known for playing indoors. This game will be out in the cold where temperature will be low. Matt Ryan and the falcons historically are not known for being great outdoor team specifically cold weather. Factor that in. Nick Foles, last two week of the season he looked like complete trash. But will this fool anyone…maybe he does look like trash and then all of a sudden he plays like a god come this weekend…Atlanta defense look great last weekend, that was the thing I was amazed with, it looked solid, it may look solid again against Foles. Philly will need to rely on the run game and defense in order to come away with a win. Tall task for the Eagles.

Offense : ATL
Passing Gm: ATL
Running Gm: PHI
Defense: PHI
Special Teams: PHI
Experience: ATL

January 8, 2018.

Georgia vs Alabama -3.5 / 45

The student vs the master.

An all SEC championship.

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FACTS

Nick Saban is 11-0 vs all of his former assistants who went on to become head coaches.

Teams who are on redemption tour and make it to the championship game, are 80% of the time going to accomplish winning at a high clip.

It’s pretty rare to see a freshman QB lead their team to a championship victory. (Joshua Hurts made it to the championship last year and his team failed short of winning).

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TEAM ADVANTAGE POINT

Offense-Advantage goes to Bama.
QB-Bama (Hurts does not make much mistakes)
RB-Push (Both team with 2 stud running backs)

Defense-Advantage goes to Georgia.
Bama is very thin on defense, and due to the many injuries they encounter it puts them in a disadvantage. But make no mistake, if they were healthy, advantage would be Bama since they got top notch talent.

Special Teams

Injuries

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Side Notes

After seeing each team compete in the playoffs, some things to note: Clemson has no offense, and Bama defense literally stop them from moving the ball. Georgia the team with the better defense could not contain Oklahoma offense and barely escape a win during sudden death OT.

So from the Sugar Bowl game, not much to take from that game as Clemson QB is trash with no passing game. So we can’t really credit Bama defense too much, but when you turn the ball over that defense make plays all day. Bama did manage to move the ball fairly decent against arguably the best defense in college (Clemson).

Rose Bowl, Georgia had to make a comeback to win this game and literally almost game it right back to Oklahoma before going into overtime. That to me is a no no. Georgia should have controlled the game from start to finish and kept it close the whole time. If you have a better run game and better defense and can’t keep it close the whole game or dominate them, that tells me something. Oklahoma has no defense, no excuse you can’t stay close.

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Conclusion

I can see Georgia moving the ball on Bama defense a little better than what Clemson could do. But they will not do anything close to the way their offense played against Oklahoma, believe that. Bama offense did not produce very much points against a top 3 defense, but they should produce a little better against Georgia’s defense. This game will come down to the QB that will be clutch and perform the best. I have a hard time believing a freshmen QB will win a championship. With that said, this game will probably be close, unless the freshmen lose his cool and just completely shutdown and get blown out.

My Pick: Roll Tide ml, 5 units.